Improbable odds here,
there, everywhere
27 September 2004
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark,
In one of your most recent columns, you spoke of
someone who possibly might have hit three royal
flushes in a row. What you didn't mention was
what the odds were of such an feat happening.
Also, wouldn't some of the long shot keno
tickets be just as tough to hit as three royals
in a row? Frank L.
Oops, an omission on my part, Frank. Sorry. The
odds of hitting three royals in a row are 32.8
trillion to one.
As to comparing three consecutive royals to a
long shot keno ticket, it would depend on how
many numbers you are trying to hit solid. Take
for example a 15-spot. Chances of hitting this
critter are approximately 428 billion to one.
Though easier to hit than three consecutive
royals, to my knowledge nobody has ever hit a
15-spot, ever, ever, ever. Then, Frank, there's
a beauty they call a "Special Bonus" ticket,
where you try to hit 19 out of 20. Try the
improbable odds of two quadrillion, 946
trillion, 096 billion, and 780 million to one.
If you were to play this ticket every second, of
every day, according to those fun laws of
probability, you will catch 19 out of 20 once
every 93,420,116 years. How's the longevity in
your family, Frank?
Just this past week an Old School 38-year
veteran of the keno wars, Art Simpson, stopped
by for a quick visit on his way to a Marine
reunion. Art worked his entire gaming career in
six N. Nevada casinos, all in keno. I asked him;
"Art, what ticket, with the most spots hit
solid, have you ever paid on?"
"A fair share of nine spots," he replied," but
never a ten spot or higher." He also commented
that over that same 38 years, he had never
witnessed his own 8-spot on the board. He had
observed plenty of seven out of eight of his
regular numbers, but never an 8-spot solid. I
can definitely buy what Art's selling; because
in the 18 years I spent on the inside, I have
seen my 5-spot (2, 25, 55, 73, 78) appear only
four times. Fortuitously, I was on it once for
$5, and it paid more than four grand, far more
than I have ever spent, or will spend, playing
keno.
Dear Mark,
Do you ever think that the old mechanical slot
machines will ever make a comeback? Stella S.
The chances of those old mechanical beauties
ever making a comeback are zip, zilch, and nada,
unless, Stella, some marketing guru can convince
the general populace that misbegotten nostalgic
stuff like a black-and-white-televisions,
Studebakers, or eight-track tapes are must have
items.
In the past I have seen some casinos offer a few
old Pace or Mills Bell O Matic Standard coin-op
machines on display that are playable, but once
the Money Honey, the first machine to have
electronic circuitry to read the reels, a
hopper, and a brightly lit front end hit the
casino floor in 1963, the horse, we'll call him
Long Gone, left the barn and he ain't comin'
home.
One thing that hasn't changed, be it today's
random number generated machines, or
yesteryear's mechanicals, you still have to keep
reaching for your purse as they gobble up your
money.
Gambling quote of the week: The Casino Manager
got on the loud speaker and announced, "A bomb
threat has been received; please vacate the
casino. Nobody moved. Five minutes later the
Casino Manager announced again, "Please
everybody leave the casino. A bomb threat has
been received." The blackjack players were the
first to go, then the crap shooters and then the
baccarat players; finally the roulette players
left. But the slot machines kept whirling and
flashing. Mario Puzo, Inside Las Vegas (1976)
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