Not all the important information is hidden
September 19, 2008
Dear Mark: In our state, we
don’t have access to slot payback percentages so
we as players don’t have a clue what that
percentage is. Your advice in a past column
called “slot tips” was to play video poker
instead of slots, and yet, wouldn’t that also be
bad advice in that video poker is just as random
as slots are? Theresa P.
Here’s what I wrote in that
column, Theresa: “If you are going to choose
between video poker and slots, play video poker.
Even poor play on a video poker machine will
have a better payback than most “reel” slot
machines.”
Here’s why, Theresa, there
is such a big difference. Slots are programmed
by the manufacturer to pay back a certain
percentage, but video poker is based on, yes,
Theresa, you are partially right, a random deal
from a 52-card deck, but it’s still based on
true mathematical probability that you can
determine in advance of playing.
In your state, casinos do
not make slot machine payback percentages
public, but by standing front and center in
front of a video poker looking at its paytable,
you can easily distinguish a good video poker
machine from a bad one, and can calculate
precisely the true payback for each.
All you need to do is learn
what paytables to look for, learn proper playing
strategy -- basically which cards to hold or
discard -- and you can play against the house
almost dead even. Compare that to playing a slot
machine, which can be gobbling up to 20 cents of
every dollar inserted, and hopefully you can now
appreciate the distinct difference.
Dear Mark: I saw something
this past weekend I’ve never seen happen before
in a casino; a natural royal flush at a
Caribbean Stud table. What are the odds of a
royal flush in Caribbean Stud? Another thing I
noticed besides the royal is how many times the
dealer didn’t qualify and I wasn’t able to get
paid on my call bets. What percentage of the
time does the dealer NOT qualify in Caribbean
Stud? Jake S.
Caribbean Stud Poker is in essence a game of
five-card stud poker, without the luxury of a
draw, so seeing that natural royal flush over
the weekend is a rare event indeed.
How rare you ask? Well, there are 2,598,560
possible five-card combinations in a standard
52-card deck. With four ways to make a royal
flush, the true odds of hitting a natural royal
are 649,640 to one.
As to your second question, the dealer will NOT
qualify 43.68 percent of the time, which I’m
sure leads to fits on your part when you have a
good hand and the dealer doesn't qualify!
That said, Jake, don’t interpret the dealer who
doesn't qualify 43.68 percent of the time as
some golden opportunity to always make call
bets, so at least your ante will get paid,
especially when you have a weak hand.
The hole in this strategy is that when the
dealers do qualify, and they will almost 56
percent of the time, you will not only lose the
ante bet, but also the call bet, which is twice
the amount of the ante wager.
If you mistakenly bluff with a weak hand, you
will lose 25% more of your ante over the long
haul than if you had folded your shaky ones.
Gambling Wisdom of the
Week: "Poker is seductive to compulsive gamblers because
they think their skill has not only leveled the
playing field, but given them an advantage."
--Andy Belin
