If Kenny got it right, it
must be easy
14 September 2007
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark: What do you think is the most
important decision recreational Texas Hold'em
players have to make to be successful at the
game? Is it what limit to play on, playing tight
versus loose, something else? Andy I.
Poker is a unique game in that it allows you to
use the laws of probability to maximize the
value of your decisions. All Hold'em players
begin each hand with this choice: With these two
hole cards, should I stay, or should I fold?
You choose at this moment whether to invest
money in your hand or not. If you fold, you lose
nothing (unless you're on the blind), but you
also gain nothing if you fold unnecessarily. So,
arguably (I await debate), I believe this is the
most import decision you make in Texas Hold'em.
You'll find that players who make the correct
decision here seem to win most of the money.
It's as simple, Jay, as Kenny Rogers sings, "You
got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold
'em."
I just finished John Gollehon's newest book,
Strike the Casino with Winning Strategies
(available in any bookstore), and he also sums
it up pretty well: "In the casino (poker), you
must have the ability to recognize an
opportunity, the wisdom to know you can't force
it to happen, and the discipline to quit when
it's gone."
Dear Mark: How often do pocket aces appear in
Hold'em? It seems I never get the opportunity to
bet such a great opening hand. Jay M.
On average, pocket aces will be dealt to you
once out of 221 hands. But – there's always a
"but"-- Jay, I was once on a game where,
although they weren't Aces but the second best
thing -- Kings happened to appear in the same
player's hand three consecutive times. Yep, I
found another table.
Dear Mark: Last week's column you wrote; "That
bonehead splitting 10s has no idea what the next
card is, so bonehead's poor play will have no
consequence on the game in general, just on the
outcome of bonehead's hand." I'll buy that, but
I was under the impression that on select hands
splitting 10's was the appropriate thing to do.
Was I wrong in thinking that? Ken G.
There is but one time when it is proper basic
strategy to split 10s, and that is if you happen
to be on a Face-up Blackjack game. In Face-up
Blackjack, all the cards dealt are exposed,
including both of the dealer's cards. Only here
does correct strategy call for splitting 10s
against a dealer's 13, 14, 15, or 16.
But you'll never see a savvy player on any
Face-up game splitting those tens, since the fee
involved for playing it is quite prohibitive.
The house edge on regular blackjack, using
perfect basic strategy, is 0.4%. On Face-up it's
five times that—2.0 percent. Why so high?
Because in Face-up you lose when you push (tie).
There is also one gaming writer, John Scarne (Scarne
on Cards), who did recommend splitting 10s in
the standard version of blackjack. But Scarne's
book was first published in 1949, well before
computers could analyze blackjack with
multi-million hand simulations. Since 1962, when
Edward Thorp, (the first blackjack specialist
using a computer (IBM 704)), published his book,
Beat the Dealer, no blackjack author has
recommended splitting 10s—under any
circumstances.
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