Tiger hunts and winning
pockets
6 October 2003
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark,
When my husband and I shoot a night with the
casino slots, we use different strategies. His
is to follow his "feelings" or "educated
hunches" and bet heavily when he feels he's due
to hit a big one.
My system depends less on clairvoyance: I arrive
with the money I can afford to risk in my jeans'
right pocket and with nothing in the left.
Winnings go in the left pocket and are never
seen again until we're home. When my right
pocket is empty, I quit.
Is there any way to compare mathematically the
worth of our two systems? It is not very
convincing to point out that I am ahead of the
game and he's behind, because of the relatively
small sample represented by the few events in
our gambling life. Patty T.
Right off, Patty, let's trash your use of the
word "systems." That word has a special meaning
in gambling circles, and probably without
knowing it, you've touched a sensitive semantics
nerve. Casino operators don't spend big bucks
building mega-resorts so that some "system
player" can come in and tar-n-feather them. Any
casino owner alive would happily send the
limousine for a system player with a certified
bankroll. Henceforward, let's beware of using
word "systems."
Secondly, as for whether you or hubby has the
better mathematical chance of hitting it big
playing slots, the answer is neither. As
explained in past columns, each spin on a slot
machine is an independent event based on the
random number generator (RGN). With each machine
possessing an RGN, the probability of hitting a
jackpot is the same for each spin. Your husband
stands the same chance of losing (winning) as
you do.
The only true skill to playing slots is machine
identification. For example: progressive
machines practically invite players to compare
and shop around for the best value. One 25 cent
"slot machine carousel" can have a progressive
jackpot of $2600 and another bank of
machines-exactly the same and standing side by
side-a $1900 jackpot. You should always track
down the best slot opportunities possible.
A close cousin to that skill is the "tiger
hunt," very handy when casinos advertise
machines with a 98.5% payback. But it's your
responsibility to find them: such advertisements
usually say, in fine or pale print, "on select
machines." Since all big cats look alike in tall
grass, they can be a tough find. They are likely
limited to a single bank of machines somewhere
in the casino. The easiest way to hunt down and
tag these beauties is to ask a slot employee. If
he or she does not know, have one of them ask a
direct supervisor.
So, Patty, what smart strategies (not systems)
are you applying that your chosen in marriage
and other gambles is not? For starters, you
never gamble with money you cannot afford to
lose. There is no more powerful generalship in
all of gambling than those words, so I will
repeat them. YOU NEVER GAMBLE WITH MONEY YOU
CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.
You also seem to have more discipline than your
spouse does, and discipline, Patty, is not only
a significant part of being a successful
gambler, but probably the most important element
of money management. I applaud your money
management acumen in setting loss limits and win
goals.
As a frisky addendum to your pocket-shifting
modus operandi, you might try setting a goal of
winning between 50 to 100% of a single-session
bankroll. At that point, set aside your original
bankroll plus half your winnings. Now play with
the remainder, and continue to set aside
additional winnings. When losing half your
session bankroll (loss limits) you walk, and
when doubling your money (win goals), you
strongly consider doing the same.
Finally, Patty, I would be remiss if I did not
mention that money management will not affect
the house advantage, nor guarantee that you will
win. The house has an advantage that is immune
to even smart money management techniques like
yours. If you play at any casino game long
enough, you will lose. But what good money
management principles can do for you, Patty, is
to minimize your losses and in most cases
protect your winnings.
Gambling quote of the week: "My advice to the
unborn is, don't be born with a gambling
instinct unless you have a good sense of
probabilities." Jack Dreyfus, The Lion of Wall
Street
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