A Video Poker Triplet
27 October 2006
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark, You mentioned that the odds are
40,000 to one of getting a royal flush when
playing video poker. I also understand that it
doesn't necessarily mean that I will hit one if
I were to play 40,000 hands. But, if I were play
those 40,000 hands and get one, how much would
it cost me? Joe H.
A whole lot of time, $250, and an expanded
waistline. Here's the breakdown.
If you're the average Joe, that's you, you're
going to be playing about 350 hands per hour,
give or take. At 350 hands per hour it will take
you just over 114 hours to play 40,000 hands. If
you were to play two, two-hour sessions per day,
with a buffet in between, it will take you 28.5
days.
Okay, Joe, on your mark, get set…
…now that we have those 40,000 hands out of the
way, and you have increased your girth by two
inches, you should have lost $250. Here's the
arithmetic.
Playing the maximum coin amount on a quarter
machine will cost you $1.25 per hand. Multiply
that by 40,000 hands and you will have cycled
$50,000 through the machine. (Tip one: You might
as well get credit for all those quarters you're
inserting, so make sure you're using your
Player's Club Card to get credit for those
40,000 hands. "Comp yourself" those trips to the
chow line.)
If you were to play perfect basic strategy on a
full-pay 9/6 jacks or better machine, and hit
the royal in 40,000 hands, you should achieve a
return of 99.5%. Multiply $50,000 by .05
percent, and you should lose, in theory, $250.
The feeding frenzy using your Player's Club Card
should be free.
Tip two: Check out weightwatchers.com. Their
point system works. I know!
Dear Mark, For a low-roller like myself who
enjoys video poker, which is better, playing
five nickels on a nickel machine, or one quarter
on a quarter machine? (P.S. The paytables are
surprisingly the same.) Marcy S.
With similar paytables, Marcy, you will want to
stick with the lower denomination nickel
machine. Here's why.
If you hit a royal flush on a nickel machine
playing five coins you will win $200. Compare
that to hitting a royal flush on a quarter
machine with one coin where your payout is
typically $67.50.
You are involving the same risk, one quarter,
but a difference of $132.50 between the two
machines when it comes to payoff for hitting the
royal.
Dear Mark, On select video poker machines, they
offer a double down option where after you win a
hand, the machine asks if you would like to
double your win. I like this feature and always
try for a winning streak of five consecutive
wins before I quit. Usually I don't get past the
third win, which leads me to ask what my odds
are of winning five of these double down hands
in a row? Isn't it still 50/50 each hand? Paul
R.
The double down option feature that Paul is
speaking of entails being dealt five cards face
down, picking one card, and the machine picking
another. If Paul's card is higher than the
machine's, he doubles his winnings from the
original poker hand. If it's lower, he loses
them.
You are correct, Paul, that it is a 50/50
proposition that you will double your money, but
only the first time. Also, each subsequent time
once you've won, the same 50/50 chance of
winning applies. But your question states
"trying for a winning streak of five consecutive
wins before quitting." Well, setting such a
lofty goal gives you only a 3.13% chance of this
occurrence happening, and not 50/50.
Gambling Wisdom of the Week: "The Vegas strip
must contain more elegance and extravagance per
square inch than anywhere in the known
universe." —Rob Wiser
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