It's Miller Time
25 October 2004
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark,
Different political figures have come out of
nowhere to either run for, or become president.
What are the odds of any American becoming
president of the United States? Do you wish to
share with us whom you will be voting for in
2000? Megan R.
I actually received this e-mail from Megan in
1999, and although I responded privately to her,
there is a reason for the five-year delay in
getting the answer into print.
As to Megan's question, a Google search of
life's facts and stats, brings up a number of
web sites stating that the odds of becoming
President at 10,000,000 to one. You can improve
those odds if you are a Union general from
Ohio-five such went on to become President. A
better chance of becoming President comes with
the name James, six of whom went on to become
President. Odds improve if you were born in a
log cabin, as eight Presidents were born in
timber dwellings. If you hold the second highest
office, you have the best chance of becoming
President, as 14 Veeps have done just that.
But I think the odds are a tougher beat than the
10,000,000 to one that I found popping up here
and there on the internet, and here's my
reasoning why even Megan's chances for being
President are so slim. There are over 280
million citizens in the United States, and only
one is President at any given time (for which we
can all give thanks). If all the Presidents
during Megan's lifetime served only one
four-year term, and her actuarial life
expectancy being 80 years, then in her natural
life, among those eligible to become President
(over 35) there is likely to be 11 different
Presidents. Therefore, if equal opportunity
exists for Megan (does it? really?), the odds of
her becoming President are at best 25 million to
one.
Still, even with those long odds there is yet
another possibility. The prospect of those
individuals we meet in our lifetime who we feel,
could be, and should be, residing at 1600
Pennsylvania Avenue. With these citizens, I say,
the odds may drop down to one in a 1,000. I have
met two couldn't-miss possibilities.
The first is US Army Captain Darren Moniot, who
is currently deployed in Iraq. Though he has
never spoken of presidential ambitions (I figure
that once he leaves his Middle East sandbox
he'll ski bum for a while), I have known him
since he was seven, and believe me, he has the
right stuff, especially against today's
standards. Besides, the ski bum livelihood
worked for Howard Dean. Though falling short of
becoming President, after his dishwashing Aspen
hiatus, he did become a three-term Vermont
governor.
My second person did have political aspirations,
declaring many times in locker room banter that
he would be President in 2004. This individual,
Skip Miller, was a swimmer from an archrival
high school in Detroit (Skip, Redford, myself,
Henry Ford), and was the most outstanding high
school student that I have ever met. I would
need an additional 10,000 words to describe
Skip, but suffice it to say, like Darren Moniot,
he had all the attributes at 18 that so many
highly visible politicians lack
today-leadership, character, energy, strength,
spirit and courage.
Regrettably, I lost track of Skip after high
school, but one day I received some mail from a
friend with a newspaper clipping from The
Detroit News. While on a summer job before
entering law school, Skip had a seizure fell
from the salmon tender "Le Conte", sinking
quickly with no chance of rescue and drowned
August 10, 1979. I was just flabbergasted. Not
Skip. Not the guy I promised in 1972 that I
would vote for President in 2004. Therefore,
Megan, since you asked, when I cast my ballot on
November 2nd, I will be writing in Skip Miller
for President.
Now before all you volunteer statisculaters fill
my mailbag with rants that I'm throwing away my
vote, I do not live in a battleground state
within the margin of litigation, and, forget not
the Show Me folks of Missouri, when they
posthumously elected Gov. Mel Carnahan to the
senate. I have waited 32 years since Skip last
whipped my behind in the 100-yard breaststroke
to cast a vote for him, so, friends, it's Miller
Time.
Gambling quote of the week: Skip Miller crewed a
lightweight eight at the University of
Washington, and I did find one quote attributed
to him on an internet site for rowing. "We told
the local pub, where we have been rationed to
one pint of beer a night, that if we won today
we'd be back for five or six pints tonight."
Skip Miller
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