Is there such a thing as
the due factor?
18 October 2004
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark,
What are your thoughts on machines that are long
overdue for a jackpot? Kali D.
You must be a new reader to the column, Kali, as
this question has been answered ample times over
the past eight years.
A machine is never "overdue" in that it becomes
more likely to hit. Theories such as that a
machine will get very tight right before a
jackpot are just hogwash. A jackpot is just as
likely to hit right after the last one, or a
million pulls after the last jackpot hit.
Dear Mark,
Would advise using the scorecards the casino
supplies at the baccarat table to follow trends?
Bill C.
Almost every baccarat table provides pencils and
scorecards for the players to track of the
outcome of each hand. Scores of players
faithfully analyze their card for trends as
winning hands switch back and forth between the
player to banker.
In my humble opinion, I believe you are wasting
your time. As long as the shoe and dealer are
legit, which you should assume with confidence
that they are, the next hand is an independent,
random event.
The strategy that I would recommend is that
since house edge for the bank hand is slightly
lower than the player hand (1.06% vs. 1.24%),
just keep betting on the banker and pass on the
scorecards.
Dear Mark,
When a sportsbook offers a promotion where you
only have to lay $105 versus $110 on a $100
wager, what does the casino advantage become?
Gary H.
Like your question states, typically when you
place a point-spread bet, you lay $11 to win
$10. This means that if you want to win $100,
you have to wager $110, regardless of which team
you are betting on. If your bet wins by covering
the spread, you will collect $210; your $110
wager, plus the $100 you just won. The
additional $10 charged is the vigorish the
casino requires as compensation for taking your
action on a sporting event.
When a casino offers a promotion in which
players only needs to add 5% instead of 10% to
their point-spread wager, the casino advantage
when laying $105 is reduced to 2.38% versus
4.55% when your lay $110.
Dear Mark,
What is the house edge for that wheel like game
called the Big 6? Also, is the joker bet the
sucker bet on the layout? Karen H.
Also known as the 'Wheel of Fortune, this game
is played on a carnival like vertical wheel.
There are inlaid dollar bills of various
denominations on the layout where the player
wagers on which denomination the pointer will
stop at.
All six wagers on the Big 6 carry a steep house
edge, especially on the casino logo/joker bet.
That casino advantage is as follows: 11.1
percent on the $1 spot, 16.6% on the $2, 22.2%
on the $5, 18.5% on the $10, 22.2% on the $20,
and 24% on either the joker or casino logo.
Though I do not recommend the following wager,
in some casinos the joker or logo pays 45 to 1
opposed to 40 to one. This lowers the casino
advantage on those two bets to 14.81%.
Gambling quote of the week: "Just as a monkey
could throw dice, a barking seal could be
trained to deal a baccarat shoe." Lyle Stuart,
Winning at Casino Gambling
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