Are birthday numbers
really luckier?
13 October 2000
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark,
In a past column you stated that you only play
the lottery when the jackpot approaches true
odds plus playing quick-pick (random) numbers. I
can see your first point, but I, like most
people, play my family's birthday numbers
because of the luck factor. What is wrong with
that?
Also, you used the odds of hitting a California
6/51 ticket as an example. Our state lottery has
54 numbers. What are the chances of hitting it?
Dale G.
The most popular method used by players for the
selection of lottery numbers is calendar dates
such as birthdays or anniversaries.
More than 65% of the tickets played in state
lotteries have numbers all marked under 31. By
eliminating numbers above 31, two problems
emerge.
First, there is a much greater chance of sharing
the bootie because such a high percentage of
people, like yourself, play this way. It is odd,
Dale, to have only one winner when all the
numbers picked are under 31.
Second, track your state lottery draws and note
how often just the numbers 1-31 occur.
Fortunately for you, I did the homework by
researching every draw of every game ever played
in California. Even to my surprise, a ticket
limiting the numbers between 1-31 appears, on
average, only 3.5 times a year (104 games per
year-Wednesday and Saturday draws).
So for the above two reasons, Dale, I
subjectively recommend random numbers, in
addition to waiting for the lottery to get close
to true odds.
For your second question, I list the staggering
chance of hitting the Illinois lottery (6 out of
54) below, plus additional state lottery games,
indexed in ascending order of difficulty.
6 out of 25 1 chance in 177,100
6 out of 30 1 chance in 593,775
6 out of 33 1 chance in 1,107,568
6 out of 36 1 chance in 1,947,792
6 out of 39 1 chance in 3,262,623
6 out of 40 1 chance in 3,838,380
6 out of 41 1 chance in 4,496,388
6 out of 42 1 chance in 5,245,786
6 out of 44 1 chance in 7,059,052
6 out of 46 1 chance in 9,366,819
6 out of 47 1 chance in 10,737,573
6 out of 48 1 chance in 12,271,512
6 out of 49 1 chance in 13,983,816
6 out of 50 1 chance in 15, 890,700
6 out of 51 1 chance in 18, 009,460
6 out of 54 1 chance in 25,827,165
Powerball (5 out of 45 + 1 out of 45) 1 chance
in 55 million.
Dear Mark,
My brother-in-law loves to brag how playing his
way is the "statistically" correct approach to
gambling. Believe me, he's no math genius and
generally loses more than he wins. Any
one-liners to shut him up? Susie L.
"Most people use statistics the way a drunk uses
a lamp post. More for support than
illumination." Mark Twain
Dear Mark,
Can you bet either the presidential elections or
the Oscars in Nevada? Cliff D.
Not anymore, Cliff. Though you'll see odds
posted by Las Vegas bookmakers in nationwide
newspapers, they're more for amusement, not
actual wagering. The Nevada Gaming Commission
halted those intriguing side wagers years ago
after bets like "Who Shot JR" were made by
insiders knowing the eventual outcome. That's
too bad. Just think of the possibilities a
sportsbook operator could offer. Like if Geraldo
Rivera mentions on his talk show that he's a
former lawyer, bet six to win five. Or that he
finished 13th out of 364 in his law school
class; here you might get 20 to one. Then
there's Rivera's evening talk show counterpart,
Larry King. That he's from Brooklyn and people
from Brooklyn are special-even money. Or that he
and his guest "go way back." Lay 10 to win five.
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