For now, this victor is enjoying the spoils
30 November 2007
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark: I seem to have an uncanny winning
history with Three-card Poker. I have won
consistently over the past year but in
particular over the past few sittings, that
being 15 winning sessions out of 20, with a
profit of over $8,500.00. I know cards are
streaky, but my uncanny luck with this game
makes me question the odds. Why am I winning
consistently at a game the experts say stay away
from? Wayne C.
The game Wayne writes of, Three-card Poker --
for any reader who may have forgotten -- is a
poker-based game that uses just three cards per
hand and is played on a blackjack table using a
52-card deck. The differences from standard
poker are: no further cards are drawn, and
players do not compete against each other, but
against either the dealer, or against a posted
payout schedule.
I'm not quite sure, Wayne, what experts you're
reading, who advise you to "stay away from it,"
since it's not only the easiest poker game I
know of, but by using a very simple strategy,
the house edge drops as low as 2.01%. For me at
least, it's a thumb's up play.
As for that simple betting strategy, Wayne, make
the "play" wager if you have at least a queen,
six, and a four in your hand. Using this simple
approach, the house edge on the "ante" wager is
about 2.01%; with the "pair plus" it's slightly
higher at 2.3%.
As for your winning streak, yes, allow me to
congratulate you on your bonanza, but needless
to say (and I will), that your gambling timeline
at Three-card poker has been limited to
hundreds, maybe thousands of hands, not
millions, so happenstance in your favor, can,
and will happen.
Don't, Wayne, put your faith in the heady
fantasy that happy aberrations in gambling odds
will last forever, even in games that carry a
small house edge, like Three-card poker.
Dear Mark: Do you have any blackjack money
management tips on how to discipline myself on
holding on to winnings? It seems all the money I
win ends up back in the dealer's tray. Hardy K.
Teaching people to walk away with some vestige
of their winnings can be an exercise in
futility. Excuse me while I sigh and roll my
eyes. A writer for the Journal of Experimental
Psychology I am not. But I can offer you a money
management tip that, if you make – no, if you
KEEP -- the pledge to stick with it, will work
wonders in your ability to leave with a profit.
Pocket your winnings -- yeah, that's right,
start by getting the chips off the felt -- as
you win and continue playing with only your
principal bankroll. Once your beginning bankroll
is lost, count your pocketed winnings and
continue playing with only half of your net win
(your winnings less your original bankroll), or
better yet, leave with all the profit.
For example, if your bankroll for that session
were $200, you would pocket all your winnings
and continue to play off the original
greenbacks. Once the $200 dollars is gone, but
your pocketed winnings are $300, play with only
with half of the surplus, $50 (that is: $300
-$200=$100, half of which is $50), repeating,
burying in your deepest pocket any additional
amount won. Personally, I wouldn't even do that;
I'd walk; figuring a 50% return on my money
can't be had even with a "can't miss" stock
pick.
By the way, Hardy, this money management tip
will in no way affect the house edge over your
play in blackjack, nor does it guarantee that
you will win more money. The casino's built-in
advantage in blackjack remains the same whether
you apply this money management technique or
not.
Gambling Wisdom of the Week:
"Sometimes you'll miss a bet, sure, but it's OK
to miss a bet. Poker is an art form, of course,
but sometimes you have to sacrifice art in favor
of making a profit." --Mike Caro
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