Downright Lethal vs
Pretty Good
3 November 2003
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark,
Please explain what you mean by "winning
progressive" betting? You mentioned it in a
column without an explanation. Does it differ
from doubling your bet after each loss? I play
in Atlantic City, generally blackjack (I'm
relatively new to the game), and $10 a hand
(hard on weekends to find anything lower). Keith
B.
The latter part of your question, Keith,
describes the "Martingale System," an historic
name for doubling up after every loss. In
essence, you, the gambler, double your previous
bet (after a loss) leaning on the statistical
certainty that sooner or later you're bound to
win. Sounds great, Right?
MID-TERM QUIZ: Why is it the worst money
management system you can use? Read on.
Far too many players believe the Martingale
system is foolproof because you have to win
eventually. The three problems with this money
management system are: 1) you do not have an
inexhaustible bankroll, 2) the casino owns the
bank and sets the rules-like the table limit,
and 3) your hourly wage if you win could be
something like $0.01.
Let me show you, Keith, how fatal this form of
wagering can be. You bet $10 and lose, then $20
to recoup that loss. Then $40, $80, $160, $320,
$640, $1,280, $2,560 and finally $5,120. You
have just invested $10,230 to get your $10 back.
And let us not forget, Keith, "the Donald"
(Trump) might have his $10 games set with table
limits of $500. A string of six defeats and
you're up against the table limit-maxxed out, as
they say. On the bright side, they'll probably
say; "Thanks, Keith, and have a beer on us."
Ever met a gambler who has not lost six, eight
or even 10 hands in a row? I haven't. That 10
bucks could buy a first class bandanna for
wiping sweat from forehead.
Horsemen sometimes use a Martingale bit to
control a fractious horse; each twitch of the
reins doubles the discomfort in the horse's
mouth. There may be a connection-don't know,
seems likely.
The far superior "Winning Progressive" betting
method goes like this:
You set a predetermined percentage increase to
follow any winning bet, and pull in your horns
after losses. Example? OK. On the advice of my
brilliant better half, I increase the bet that
follows any winning bet except the first by 50%:
First $10 bet wins, next bet also for $10 wins,
and now we're off on the 50% gallop: $15, $22,
$33, $50, $75 etc, then drop to the table
minimum-"flat betting"-after every loss.
Side note here: Many players increase their bets
after a win by 50% after the first win. I just
happen to be a little more conservative with my
hard-earned money-actually, only when my wife is
standing next to me- and wait out the second win
before plunging.
Either way, Keith, a winning progressive method
of betting, will minimize your losses and
usually protect your winnings.
Gambling quote of the week: "When you enter a
casino, remember that you are entering a place
of business run by very shrewd business people
who understand human emotions."-Henry Tamburin
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