Let us all praise
streaking
29 November 2004
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark,
What's the longest winning streak you have ever
witnessed in gambling? Mary Ann G.
A REAL FUN question, Mary Ann, which gets into
gear a few lines down, where you'll also read
about the longest losing streak I've ever
witnessed. A streak is nothing more than a
welcome (welcome to one side, that is, unwelcome
to the other), momentary flutter in an endless
time-line, which will soon be balanced by one or
more unwelcome flutters.
As for streaks observed, I once dealt a lady 32
straight winning hands in blackjack. I tried
like the dickens to get her to progressively bet
more, but she took her $64 (32X$2) after the run
ended and walked away a happy camper, with a
yarn and a smile for a lifetime.
I myself once had a horse in the money in 17
consecutive races over two days at Pimlico,
offset by not having a horse crossing the line
for cash for the next 35 races. See why the gods
of chance are always shown grinning?
But the most superlative streak belongs to Kimmy
T. from Traverse City, Michigan, who accumulated
47 winning sessions in a row in a casino. Yes,
readers, don't let your eyes deceive you, you're
reading it right. As an eyewitness at both the
Leelanau Sands and the Turtle Creek Casino, I
observed or documented Kimmy briefly tossing the
odds into a cocked hat. She started her run nine
months ago when she, her husband, my wife, my
father and I hit the Leelanau Sands for an
afternoon of leisurely gambling. (All right,
coming clean here, I was there specifically for
the $2.99 lunch buffet -- a little vacation from
my uxorially imposed diet).
Her eventual gambling timeline, 47 consecutive
visits to the casino and coming out a winner
each time, is still within the breeding grounds
for unusual fluctuations, where -- briefly --
results seem to defy the dictates of
probability. The casino's built-in advantage on
the games she played didn't hold during her
brief gaming stints. She made her gambling
timeline as short as possible, always beginning
with a bankroll of $80, walking away with as
little as a $20 profit in 10 minutes, or as much
as $1,150 in a two-hour period.
Kimmy's games of choice were but three: Double
zero roulette, where the house edge is 5.26% on
all the wagers she made; Three card poker with a
simple basic strategy she learned from this
column, which lowered the house edge on the
"ante" wager to about 2.1%; and the "Pair plus"
bet slightly higher at 2.3%; and, dare I say it,
$1 SLOTS. The casino advantage on one-armed
bandits in Michigan is, the envelope please,
UNKNOWN.
Though many state gaming regulatory or tax
agencies publicize casino slot returns for their
respected jurisdictions, Michigan casinos are
not required by law to release information on
their slot machine payback percentages. All the
Michigan casino must do is meet the same
standards for machines as in New Jersey or
Nevada. In New Jersey, the minimum return is 83
percent, Nevada it's 75 percent. Thus, Michigan
casinos must return at least 75 percent to
comply with the law.
Yet, the casino edge for slot machines, and for
that matter for all casino games is based on
long-term trials. Casinos are open 24 hours a
day, greeting with a big smile those millions of
handle pulls. With thousands of hopefuls playing
Kimmy's games of choice, slots, double zero
roulette, and three-card poker at any given
moment, and with a mathematical advantage to the
casino in every one of them, the casino doesn't
lose, unless a godsend anomaly occurs, as it did
for her.
Have faith, Mary Ann, in the casino's advantage
being quite real, but predicated on the
operation of the "law of averages" over a long
period. By exposing your money for an extended
period, you veer unavoidably closer to the
ultimate built-in loss that the casino's
statistician has prepared for you. Brevity of a
gambling session is, for that reason, the secret
weapon Kimmy employed.
Unfortunately, most players lengthen their
bankroll's exposure and give the casino a
correspondingly greater opportunity to eat it,
whereas Kimmy, shortened her playing time to as
little as 10 minutes, giving her a chance to
exploit any favorable deviations from the law of
big numbers that may occur.
Her hit-and-run method won't guarantee you will
be a winner or ever have a run of luck such as
Kimmy had, but magical gambling moments do
happen, and your hand-to-hand encounter with
destiny could begin today. You too, Mary Ann,
could be walking around lucky and not even know
it.
Before I shuffle: Incidentally, the steak did
end at 47, but as I write this, I just got a
call from Kimmy. She's in Vegas and up over $600
on her first day.
Gambling quote of the week: "Emotion is the
greatest killer to any gambler, and if you wear
your heart on your sleeve when you wager, those
bookmakers will knock it off like a bad limb."
--Amarillo Slim
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