KENO --- NO-BEANO
19 November 2002
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark,
I am a bit leery of these new computerized games
you see everywhere, especially computerized
keno. You yourself once said that no one to your
knowledge have ever hit a 15 spot. I was
wondering if there would be any correlation
between no one ever hitting a long shot keno
ticket, and the computer knowing in advance what
numbers that you are playing? Skip T.
Ah, Skip, that miscreant 15-spot! Chances of
hitting this critter are about 428 billion to
one. Or how about this beast they call the
"Special Bonus" ticket; hitting 19 out of 20.
Try the improbable odds of two quadrillion, 946
trillion, 096 billion, and 780 million to one.
To cash in on this dour dog, you would have to
play one keno ticket per second, 24 hours a day,
365 days a year. And then, according to laws of
probability, you will catch 19 out of 20 once
every 93,420,116 years. If you are a player of
such yuck, I hope your genetic traits include
longevity; you're looking at a lifetime-with no
sleep-a hundred thousand times the length of
Methuselah's record setter.
Now come on, Skip, with such a built-in
advantage, why would the casino (or the slot
machine owners) even entertain the thought of
blatant dishonesty. They don't need to
double-cheat you to win; they use simple math to
ensure that they will win in the end. All casino
games-table as well as slot, mind you-assure the
"house percentage" by reducing the payoffs when
you win. Long shot 15-spot keno tickets are no
exception to this rule.
Because your question involved keno, allow me to
do some fifth grade 'rithmetic to explain how
easy it is for the casino to dip into your
billfold without the pickpocket's shabby
illegitimacy.
In Keno, the house picks 20 numbers between 1
and 80. You, by repeating your personal mantra
and then lunging into an uneducated guess,
predict which of those numbers will appear. For
example, suppose you make a one-dollar, one-spot
wager that the number 25 is going to emerge.
Again, pop quiz 'rithmetic proves that your
chances of winning are 1 in 4 (= 20 divided by
80 = 25% ). Now if the game had no house edge,
and the number you picked (25) was a winner, how
much should you have gotten back? The correct
answer is $4. But hold on, Skippy, the casino is
only going fork over three buckaroos.
This, in its simplest form, is the concept of
the house percentage. The casino figures out the
true odds of the game, then pay you less than
those true odds. In my example, you only won $3
when the true odds dictated that you should have
won $4. This calculates to a colossal 25% house
percentage. And with a casino edge on a one spot
at 25%, you will lose $25 for every $100 you
wager. Pick more numbers, like a 15 spot, and
well, you should be getting the picture by
now..........
One more thing, Skip. The casino does not need a
25% house edge to legally hack though your
pocketbook. Casino owners can sleep comfortably
on just a 5% return without the aid of
SLEEPY-BYE-OL. They know that in the long run
you will flip them $5 for every $100 you wager .
Fortunately though, avid readers of this column
(can't speak for the forgetful) only make wagers
that have less than a 2% casino advantage.
So, Skip, as for the casino defrauding you by
twiddling the slot: fuhgeddaboutit! Concern
yourself more with game selection.
Gambling thought of the week: "God has given us
casinos so that we might learn to live without
money." VP Pappy
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