Don't Quit Your Day Job
5 May 2000
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark,
In a past column, you stated that video poker
has a return of 99 percent to the smart player
and can be mathematically one of the best bets
in the casino. My question is this. If I combine
my passion for the game, a low house advantage
and jackpots that run more than $1,000, is there
any possibility that I could make a living
playing video poker? Ted L.
Assuming, Ted, you were to do all the right
things like finding full-pay (9/6)
jacks-or-better machines and play perfect basic
strategy, I would still recommend the following
advice. Don't quit your day job! Even though
your expected payback is more than 99 percent,
actually 99.544 percent, you must take into
account that those high returns are based on you
hitting the royal flush. And why a royal flush?
Because a royal on a full pay (9/6)
jacks-or-better machine accounts for 1.981
percent of your total return. Also of note, Ted,
plan on playing video poker an average of 60
hours, with rapid play, before hitting a royal
flush. Even a straight flush can be expected
only once every six hours, and four-of-a-kind
hands occur just once an hour. Those hands are
significant because they represent another five
percent of a player's return.
What this all means to the video poker player,
Ted, is that the casino has a 10 percent
advantage while you're waiting for the big
payoff. Finally, Ted, your bankroll. It's going
to take you, again on average, a wad of cash
about as large as the royal flush itself to
survive long enough to hit it.
Is a Friday paycheck starting to sound good
about now?
Dear Mark,
By reading your column and listening to your
tapes "Hooked on Winning," you've got me trained
to look for the best value on 8/5 progressive
video poker machines. What are the key jackpot
figures I'm looking for to at least break even
against the house? Susan, L.
Susan, to be even against the house you need to
find a machine with a progressive jackpot that
is larger than 1750 maximum bets ($440 for $.05
machines, $2,200 for the $.25 machines, and
$8750 for the $1 slots). Want a mathematical two
percent edge? Look for jackpots of $625 on your
nickel, $3,125 on the quarter, and $12,500 on
the dollar machines. Tough to find, but do they
exist. Good luck.
(When Susan was referring to 8/5, and I, 9/6 in
the Q&A above, we meant the payoff for a full
house and a flush with one coin inserted.)
Dear Mark,
How would you go about identifying a good-paying
"deuces wild" video poker machine versus a bad
one? Angela C.
The key to evaluating the potential return on a
"deuces wild" machine, Angela, is the payoff on
four-of-a-kinds. If your local casino has little
competition, that hand is paid 20 for 5, rather
than 25 for 5. Since four-of-a-kinds occur
frequently, this lower payoff drops the
percentage return by well over six percent. Some
machines, though, will give you a little extra
by paying more for the full house. But overall,
if you're playing on a machine which pays just
20 for a four-of-a-kind, you're playing less
than a full pay version of Deuces Wild.
Dear Mark,
Is it important in video poker to play the full
number of coins? Jerry R.
Yes, because if you look at the paytable closely
you will notice a non-symmetrical progression on
the royal flush payline. Your typical royal
flush payline looks like this; 250, 500, 750,
1000, 4000. Note the jump with the fifth coin
inserted. Not playing that fifth coin, Jerry,
will cost you 12% over the long haul.
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