Counting's wins and woes
12 May 2006
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark,
Can a casino shuffle-up early, even on a
multi-deck game, before the cut card appears?
Are they trying to stop card counters? I’ve had
this done to me on different occasions and was
wondering if it is legal. Pat P.
Ordinarily a dealer inserts the cut card
anywhere from the halfway point to 75% from the
top of the deck(s). Because counters gain their
advantage the deeper they can penetrate into the
deck(s), casinos will thwart a counter’s profit
potential by inserting the cut card closer to
the front.
Since counter profits dwindle when the cut card
is inserted closer to the front, which by the
way is legal, consistent winning for the card
counter becomes much more difficult since
counters can capitalize on higher plus and minus
counts when they were allowed to access the deck
deeper.
Casinos everywhere may also legally shuffle the
deck(s) before the cut or burn card presents
itself. If management suspects a player of card
counting, they may “shuffle-up” on him without
warning, even after just a few rounds have been
dealt on a multi-deck game, or even after the
first round on a single deck.
Premature shuffling destroys the advantageous
situation counters typically enjoy. The
successful card counter avoids the early
shuffling countermeasure by camouflaging his
play and remaining undetected by pit personal.
Dear Mark,
It has been well established, even by you in
this column, that you can gain a mathematical
edge counting cards in blackjack. Do you believe
the same holds true for baccarat? Danny R.
Baccarat is a card game with one major
similarity to blackjack, Danny. Once the cards
are dealt, they are then placed in a discard
rack and do not reappear until the shuffle. In
theory, knowledge of the remaining cards can be
used for an applicable counting system. Because
counting does work in blackjack, some believe a
card-counting system can/should work for
baccarat, being that the effect of removing any
given card from the game favors either the
player or the house.
That said, personally I’m not willing to expend
my already depleted brain cells and count down
eight decks of randomly shuffled cards for a
hypothetical, minuscule off-balance in my favor,
especially when playing baccarat either drunk or
stupid the house only holds a 1.17 or 1.36
percent house advantage on the bank or player
bet.
Even two leading authorities on counting
systems, Peter Griffin and Edward Thorp, believe
baccarat is not a countable game. As a matter of
fact, Griffin’s analysis showed that a
card-counter could earn less than ten cents per
day by using the strongest possible count
system. Talk about minimum wage!
Likewise, I’ll band with Thorp and Griffin, even
though I once learned a supposedly simple
counting method that an old-time pit boss named
Dennis taught me when I first learned to deal
mini-baccarat. I’m sure it was for my amusement
and not to protect the casino’s war chest, since
we seldom saw a wager over five bucks, but he
told me to count the 4s and 6s as they left the
shoe. He said when 4s exit the deck,
statistically the player should be betting on
the banker, and when 6s come out, the player
wager is the smarter bet.
Is this count method practical? Hell if I know,
but one thing Denny was always good for was free
after shift drinks at the casino bar.
Gambling Wisdom of the Week: "If winning at
poker rewards your soul, then you're fine, but
if losing at poker rewards you in your soul,
you'd better change to checkers." –John Vorhaus,
"Killer Poker"
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