Natural odds, take your bow
May 1, 2009
Dear Mark: I have
been told that the best bet in a casino is to
bet "natural odds" at the craps table because
the house has no edge. My question is, if this
is such a good bet, why do some casinos offer to
let you to place bets for up to ten times your
line bet or even higher? Bob F.
It’s true; Bob, taking odds is distinct from all
other casino wagers in that free odds carry NO
house edge. All bets are paid off at true odds.
For example, let's say that you bet $5 on the
pass line and the point is 4. On a double-odds
table, where you are allowed to make an odds bet
twice the size of your original pass bet, you
are allowed to back your pass line bet with $10
in free odds. If the four hits, you’re paid even
money on your Pass line bet and true odds of two
to one on your $10 odds bet.
The math of craps tells you that the odds
against your winning are 2-1, because with two
six-sided dice, there are six ways of making a 7
(loser) and three ways of making a winner 4. If
you win, your pass line bet is paid at even
money, bringing you $5 in winnings, but your
odds bet is paid at the 2-1 true odds, bringing
you an additional $20. By making use of them,
double odds drops the house edge to 0.6 percent,
10x odds to 0.2 percent and 100x odds w-a-a-a-y
down to 0.02 percent.
So why would a casino allow 2x, 10x, or even
100x odds? Casinos think of this loss leader as
a marketing tool to induce play. What the casino
also knows is that Mr. Average Joe isn’t going
to chunk that kind of change on the crap layout.
They know taking odds can be an expensive
proposition, especially when dealing in
multiples of 10x or even 100x odds, even though
the house edge on the bet is infinitesimal. They
know a player needs to be well capitalized to
embrace this wager. A $10 pass line wager with
100x odds puts $1,010 of your hard-earned money
in play, all on one toss of the dice. They may
not know exactly what your bankroll is, but they
do know they’ve got a cage full of money to go
to war with, and you probably don’t. A couple
early session seven-out, line away calls, and –
oops! -- you’re at valet parking without tip
money to retrieve your car.
The suggestion of taking odds is a sound
guerilla gambling strategy, so long as you don’t
get caught up in the hysteria of a game and
start also making proposition bets that have a
casino edge as high as 16%. And, Bob, your
pursuit should be to find the lowest table
minimum possible, preferably a $2 game.
Written here must also be one caveat: Craps with
odds is still a negative expectation game,
meaning that no matter how you bet, even on a $2
wager combined with 100X odds, the house has an
overall edge on your play. No multiple of odds
wagers can beat a negative expectation game over
the long haul.
Gambling Wisdom of the Week: “It’s
much tougher to beat Sports book than it was in
years past. You have a better shot at becoming a
movie star.” --Lem Banker, Lem Banker’s Book of
Sports Betting
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