I'll bet dollars to
donuts it will never hit
30 June 2003
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark,
A casino in Reno has a cash-your-paycheck video
poker machine with a big payout of $1,000,000
for a sequential royal flush. The machine has
been there for about four years with no winner.
What are the odds of ever hitting the big one,
and can the machine be set to miss it? Joe Q.
Question your way, Joe. Which do you think is
easier? Hitting a sequential royal flush, or
hitting 6 solid of 51 numbers in your typical
state lottery? You would be wrong, Partner, if
you think hitting a sequential royal flush is
easier.
Let's crunch the numbers: The chances of hitting
a 6/51 lottery are 18,009,460 to one. For an
ascending royal flush in any suit, they are
77,968,800.
If it is suit specific, for instance, it must be
in spades, then the chances are one in
311,875,200.
As to the latter part of your question, there
wouldn't be a need to program a machine to never
deal a royal when the chances of its occurrence
are infinitesimal. Either way, not only has no
one hit a sequential in four years, I am willing
to make an eat-your-hat wager no one ever will.
Sombreros preferred, hold the tabasco; takers
get back to me pronto.
This "gimmick" bonus is nothing more than a
marketing scheme to induce cashing your paycheck
at their joint, and then, while you're so close,
registering for One-armed-banditry 101. And
while we're in an academic mood, how tall would
a stack of 311,875,200 dollar bills be, and what
would it weigh? Prizes for the worst answers.
Dear Mark,
You possibly answered this following question
incorrectly: True or false: The joker is always
wild in Pai Gow Poker? Jason C.
Your answer was; "The correct answer, Jason, is
false. In Pai Gow Poker, the joker acts as a
special card, yet not as a wild card in every
scenario. The joker's only uses are as an ace,
or as a wild card to complete a straight, a
flush, a straight flush, or a royal flush."
I agree with your answer, Mark, however, kindly
be advised the joker is always wild in the
underground houses in New York's Chinatown
(since banned) and the casinos in California.
Wilson M.
Of course, Wilson, you do understand that
because this column runs nationwide, at times I
will need to generalize and omit or suppress
blind pig action played in the fetid grottos of
the earth. I do appreciate, though, the heads-up
on Pai Gow Poker action in California.
Dear Mark,
Often, I notice you recommend making a Pass line
wager. Seldom do you recommend making the Don't
pass bet. Isn't the Don't pass a better wager
than the Pass line? Danny S.
Yes, Danny, the Don't pass bet (seven rolling
before the point) is a "marginally" better bet-a
1.4 percent casino advantage versus the Pass
line's 1.41 percent. But, I have always enjoyed
the kibbutz esprit of a live craps game, you
know-all us sweating infidels against the
establishment, together, trying to beat the
oh-so-cool house.
By betting the Don't, you become one of them, a
renegade sneering at the majority, hoping the
seven wields its ugly face, wiping the rest of
us out. Boo hoo to you!
While I'm at it, Danny, if you become a Don't
pass bettor, never scream out, "Come on, seven!"
Betting against most players is bad enough, but
rooting against them and gloating after a win is
terrible table etiquette that will not get you
to paradise.
Gambling quote of the week: "A slot machine
never talks back to you (although some of the
newer ones do talk to you), never criticizes
your play, and never cusses you out. Sounds like
the kind of friend we'd all like to have." -The
book, Gambling For Dummies
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