Leftovers From Last Week
7 July 2006
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark,
I enjoy reading your column in the Reno Gazette
Journal each week. I am a craps dealer, but
possibly a confused craps dealer. I always
thought that the casino advantage was higher on
the 6 and 8 hardways than the 4 and 10 hardways
since there are more ways to roll easy sixes and
eights. Your June 29th column lists the 4 and 10
casino advantage 11.1% and the 6 and 8 at 9.09%.
Have you made an error or have I been under the
wrong impression for 16 years? Please explain.
Peter P.
I do thank you for those kind words, Peter P,
and now to work.
The actual odds, Peter, pitted against the
player's payout, determines what the casino's
advantage is on a hardway bet, and NOT how many
more ways you can roll an easy 6 or 8 versus 4
and 10. Let's examine this further, Peter, using
the hard 10 and 8 as examples.
When betting a hard 10, there are eight ways to
lose: six ways to throw a seven (4-3, 3-4, 5-2,
2-5, 6-1, 1-6) and two ways to throw a 10 the
easy way (6-4, 4-6). This would mean that the
correct payoff for a hardway 10 should be eight
to one. Yet you, Peter, the 16-year Green Felt
Jungle veteran, will pay the winning patron just
seven to one, effectively giving the casino an
11.1% advantage on this wager.
As for a hard 8, there are ten ways to lose:
again, six ways to throw a 7, and four ways for
an 8 the easy way (5-3, 3-5, 6-2, 2-6). Because
there are ten ways to lose, the correct payoff
should be 10 to one on a hard 8, but your payoff
to the player is only nine to one, which gives
the house a 9.09% edge on this bet.
Yep, Peter, there is only one way to win a
hardway bet, and oodles of ways of losing. So,
with payouts not to the player's advantage, I'm
hoping readers retain what they've just read and
save their hard-earned money for more
advantageous bets on the layout.
Dear Mark,
Last week you mentioned different proposition
bets on a crap table but didn't mention a "hop"
bet. I've heard it yelled out on a crap table
before but I'm not quite clear how to play it,
or even where it is located on the table.
Also, what are your thoughts about the "due
factor" as it relates to craps? By reading last
week's column I took away the fact that you are
no fan of any proposition bets, but what are
your thoughts that if the 11 hasn't appeared in
let's say an hour, wouldn't a little side action
on it (the 11) be justified? Neal C.
A hop bet, Neil, is a wager on any combination
of the dice on the next roll. For example,
"Hard" 6 on the hop pays 30-1 (the actual odds,
Neal, are 35-1) if matching 3's appear on the
dice on the next roll only. You may also bet
"Easy" combinations, such as a 4-2 or 5-1, which
pays off at 15 to one, with actual odds of 17 to
one.
The reason you can't ferret out a hop bet on
most craps tables is that hop wagers do not have
a designated space on the layout; instead, they
are usually placed in front of the boxman, often
with a "hop" marker placed on top of your chips.
As to the second part of your question, past die
rolls do not influence the probabilities of
future die rolls. The famous and costly
Gambler's Fallacy, Neil, is the belief that a
craps player should bet on 11 if an 11 has not
appeared in the last umpteen rolls. In
actuality, each roll of the dice is an
independent event, with the probability of
rolling an 11 not changing from one in 18, even
if the 11 hasn't appeared in the last 24 hours.
But ... show me one gambler who really believes
that, and I'll show eighteen who don't. That's
called the Casino Owners' Magic Carpet.
Gambling wisdom of the Week: "If you've lost
every penny you brought to gamble with, that
might be a good time to leave." -- Frank Scoblete, Casino Gambling
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