Biased machines and a
damned system
5 January 2004
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark,
I gamble in one of three places: The South where
I live, Biloxi and Shreveport, and where my
daughter resides, Reno, Nevada. I limit my play
to only video poker. Though my playing style
stays consistent, it seems I am luckier in Reno
than the casinos here in the South. My question
is this. Is it possible that the video poker
machines are not truly random here in the South,
but instead, biased that high cards come up less
often than expected? Marty C.
A few quick thoughts, Marty, before I answer
your question regarding biased machines.
First, because you most likely play less often
in Reno, your gambling timeline is shorter.
Shorten your exposure in front of any machine,
anything can happen, including winning more.
Also, you did not mention that the paytables
were the same in all three gaming jurisdictions.
Quite possibly, you are playing on machines that
have a better paytable in Reno. Get back to me,
Marty, on that one.
As for machines being set so high cards appear
less frequent, you might find those kind of
shenanigans in foreign casinos, cruise ships,
online, etc, but where you play, Mississippi,
Louisiana and Nevada, regulations mandate that
every unseen card in video poker must have an
equal probability of appearing just as if the
cards were being dealt by a well shuffled deck.
Dear Mark,
A slot attendant told me that a particular video
poker machine has not hit in over six months.
You have stated in the past that the chances of
hitting a royal are about 40,000 to one. My
guess is that this machine has probably seen
more than 40,000 plays over that period.
Wouldn't it be logical to assume that the
machine is now due to hit a royal? Karen K.
True, Karen, I did state that the odds of a
royal flush occurring are once per 40,000 plays,
but I never said that a machine will hit once
every 40,000 hands. No matter how long it has
been since that machine has paid a jackpot, the
random number generator used to shuffle the
cards has no memory. It does not know Karen
needs a quick score to pay the rent. So, the
probability of a royal flush on each and every
hand remains the same; ALWAYS 40,000 to one.
Like all slots, video poker machines do run hot
and cold, but there is no way you, me, a slot
attendant, or even the casino owner knows when a
royal will appear next.
Dear Mark,
I received some e-mail for a slot system based
on cycling. Do you know anything about it? Is it
worth the money? Jan F.
The seller hawking this stygian system believes
that slot machine combinations are programmed to
go through a cycle. At the end of each cycle,
combinations will repeat themselves in the exact
same order. SAVE YOUR MONEY, Jan. Each
combination is random and independent of past
ones.
Speaking of combinations, some progressive
machines can have 16,777,216 possible outcomes.
I recommend bringing a sack lunch to any ninny
who plans to record every one of them.
Gambling quote of the week: Gambling on football
has never been really good for you; but on some
days, it can be serious fun. That is how it
works for some people; and on Monday night, I
was one of them. I won big on Indianapolis, and
came dangerously close to winning a mysterious
woman from a visiting gambler. She almost went
crazy when he said he would leave her here as
collateral until he could pay off his losses in
cash, which has been standard gambling procedure
out here in the sporting West for 200 years, and
nobody has ever called it White Slavery. -Hunter
S Thompson
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