Happenstance or Cheating?
January 16, 2009
Dear Mark: I was
recently in Vegas for New Years. I changed $100
to play blackjack at a $10 table, breaking my
bets into five $20 bets. It was just me versus
the dealer, pushed a couple of times, and I lost
eight straight hands without winning one single
hand (the last $20 was broken down into two $10
bets).
Here's the part that keeps me up at night. It
was a brand new six deck shoe. When the cards
were dealt, the shoe appeared hot. Here's the
kicker, the dealer would always get better cards
than me. If I pulled an 18, he'd pull a 19, If I
pulled a 20, he'd pull a 21, etc.
I can't help but wonder that if another player
were to sit down, or if I played two hands, it
would have changed the flow and help to my
benefit, since all the cards being dealt were
high.
Do you think that would have happened? Or would
the dealer still be able to pull miraculous 21's
out of nowhere? Johnson T.
You didn’t go home a loser, Johnson, because you
were swindled by some card shark. It was because
your gambling timeline -- the period you’re on
the game -- was limited to but a few hands of
snapper. When your gambling timeline is limited
to under a dozen hands of blackjack, and not to
millions, thousands, or even hundreds of them,
any percentage return, can, and will happen. The
Law of Averages (aka the Law of Really BIG
Numbers) did not have time to work during your
brief tenure at the table.
Yes, definitely, you would have been dealt
different cards possibly poles apart had you
played two circles, and perhaps you could have
won eight straight, but anytime you join a game,
even if it’s fresh decks out of a shoe, you
initiate your own personal sequence of hands,
with the cards possibly going hot or cold from
that moment forward.
The lesson here, Johnson, is that when you
shorten your time on a table, don’t expect the
Law of Averages to be working in your favor;
half the time it won’t. Abysmal aberrations in
gambling odds do happen, even in games that
carry the smallest house edge, like blackjack
with smart play.
Dear Mark: My favorite video poker
machine offers a double-up feature. It seems
like an even-up bet to me. Is it? If it is,
should I keep doubling up? Greg M.
For those outside the lingo, some video poker
machines offer Double Up, the option of risking
your current winning hand for a chance at
doubling your money. Typically, it’s high/low
against a machine-dealt playing card. This
Double Up bet involves five cards being drawn
face down. The house draws one card first and
then player must choose one of the remaining
four cards. The player who draws a higher card
than that drawn by the house, is paid 1-to-1 on
the wager. The Double Up offer continues after
each win until the player begs to be excused or
loses.
At first whiff, many players believe this is
just another way for the casino to pillage your
wallet. Not so, my friends. In fact, it ‘s
actually one of the best bets in the casino. No
house edge means a 50-50 chance of your doubling
your money, if, that is, ties are a push, and
not a casino win. If ties are pushed, the game
is fair, with an expected value of 100%. But if
ties are considered a house win, then the Double
Up bet has a house edge of 5.8%.
One other thing, Greg. Let’s say your favorite
casino is philanthropic and pushes ties, giving
you a 50-50 chance of winning. The wager can
become heavily stacked against you if your goal
is to string a dozen wins together.
As well, don’t plan on doubling as often as you
wish. We all fantasize champagne wishes and
caviar dreams, like winning 19 hands in a row
with a $2.50 investment and becoming an instant
millionaire. I’m sorry to say, just as in the
table games where table limits apply, the
compounding of money by parlaying winnings won’t
work here either. Machines limit the doubling
from as little as five times in a row to 10,000
coins returned ($2,500).
So the long and short of it, Greg, is to show
some strong money management (cash control) and
play this wager without going overboard.
Gambling Wisdom of the Week: "I
think we consider too much the luck of the early
bird, and not enough the bad luck of the early
worm." --Franklin Delano Roosevelt
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