It could happen to you -
and then again, probably not
14 January 2003
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark,
You always recommend making wagers that have
less than a 2% house advantage. Okay, sound
logic, but why is it that a gambler can still
win, even on games like keno or those big slot
jackpots when the Law of Averages says they
won't? William R.
Because, William, the Law of Averages does not
have time to work during most brief casino. That
said, you should never put your faith in the
heady belief that happy aberrations in gambling
odds will happen in games that carry a huge
house advantage. The keen player never ignores
the mathematical odds that are working for or
against him. But every gambler's timeline (tabletime)
is still relatively short, be it three hours or
three days, so anything can happen- even for the
8-spot keno winner, or the serendipitous winner
of the super slot-pot. Those fortuitous winners
don't go home because the Law of Averages worked
in their favor, most likely it was because the
Law of Averages didn't.
Dear Mark,
I am new to the game of mini-baccarat. My
boyfriend says all I should do is just keep
betting the Player hand. Besides avoiding the 5%
commission when making the Bank hand bet, it has
the easiest rules to remember on when your hand
has to be hit. Not that I am challenging my
boyfriend's wisdom, but what are your thoughts
on just sticking with the Player (one) wager?
Molly P.
Your Mr. Smart (clearly a loyal column reader)
is correct, Molly, as the Bank hand has no
bearing on whether or not the Player hand draws
a card.
The lone variable, which determines whether the
Player hand should get that third card, is the
total of the first two cards the Player hand
receives. If that total is 0 through 5, then the
Player hand receives a third card. If the Player
hand totals 6, 7, 8, or 9, then the hand cannot
draw an additional card. For example, 6 + K = 6
(stands); 8 + 7 = 5 (draws); J + Q = 0 (draws);
8 + 8 = 6 (stands). (Reference: 10, J, Q, K are
always zero)
Though most players vary their betting between
the Bank hand and Player hand, I see no problem
with sticking to just one wager. KISS, Keep It
Simple Stupid, is just fine and dandy,
especially if you are one of those players who
don't believe in streaks, that each dealt hand
is an independent event, separate from each
preceding hand.
But just so you know, Molly, by learning the
more complex rules on when you have to take a
hit on the Bank hand does reduce the house edge
down to 1.17%, slipping neatly under the already
picayune 1.36% edge the casino has over the
Player hand.
Either way, both the Bank and Player bets are
smart wagers because they have a relatively low
casino advantage, making them both some of the
best bets in the casino.
Dear Mark,
In Video Poker, is it better to keep a small
pair against a single face card? Leslie B.
A small pair, Leslie, (2s-10s), is always a
keeper over a single face card.
Gambling quote of the week: "Anyone who tells
you that they're a professional craps shooter,
professional baccarat player or professional
slot junkie is either a liar or a cheat that the
casino hasn't caught yet." -Lou Krieger & Arthur Reber
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