While cards flit hither and yon, the dots on
dice stay put
February 27, 2009
Dear Mark: As to
table games, you have mentioned that in roulette
and craps, each spin of the wheel and each
toss of the dice are based on independent
events. Why wouldn’t blackjack be in this same
category? The cards are randomly shuffled, so
wouldn’t each individual blackjack hand also be
considered independent from another? John C.
Yes, John, you are correct in stating that each
individual spin on a roulette wheel or toss of
dice on a crap game should be treated as an
independent event. Roulette balls and dice have
neither memory nor clairvoyance. No amount of
past history (looking backwards from a streak)
on a random, non-biased wheel or legal die cubes
predicts a future outcome.
Yet, although the first hand of blackjack dealt
from a randomly shuffled full deck consists of
randomly selected cards with equal likelihoods
of being selected, the same cannot be true of
any following hand, since no following hand can
have in it any of the cards already dealt. In
card games, what has happened in the past DOES
affect what will happen in the future.
The odds constantly shift as cards are dealt
from the deck. Blackjack players who count
cards, are constantly trying to determine the
comparative presence of 10s and non-10s in the
deck. That information determines whether the
deck is favorable to the house or to the player
at any given moment. When the balance favors the
player, he or she would increase the bet.
Conversely, when the deck favors the house, the
player would wager less.
With the other two games mentioned, those tools
of gambling (roulette ball and dice) have
neither memory or consciousness. They are just
blind tools of the trade, whose composition
doesn’t change during play, and which cannot
affect the odds of the game in any way. But a
shoe that’s showing, say, plus 10 for the player
isn’t independent at all, but a golden
opportunity for a player to not only increase
his or her next bet, but to enjoy a much higher
probability of winning.
Dear Mark: On a jackpot of $1,200 or
more, is there any way I can legally avoid
receiving a W2-G? Say for instance on a $1,200
jackpot, can I ask the casino to pay me less
than the full amount? Mel T.
According to IRS, the casino must issue you a
W2-G if a slot machine win is above $1,200. The
way you can circumvent receiving one is by
refusing the money altogether. Let me know when
you do that, Mel. Better yet, call me. I’ll
claim the jackpot and gladly pay the taxes.
As for asking the casino to shortchange you on
your windfall to dodge a W2-G, off the cuff, I’d
say, notta chance. In the joints I worked, we
wouldn’t for two reasons; accounting--the pencil
pushers upstairs like things balanced--and
collusion. Being that all gambling winnings are
technically taxable, Uncle Sam getting wind of a
publicly traded company on the NYSE in cahoots
with players trying to avoid paying taxes would
be a bit unpleasant for all involved.
Gambling Wisdom of the Week: “Some
of the opponents you will encounter in poker
games will be more ruthless than any casino in
taking your money.” --Jean Scott, More Frugal
Gambling
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