Nephew not the sharpest
knife in the drawer
2 February 2004
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark, I have a nephew who thinks he has a
foolproof system for winning at blackjack. He is
not very intelligent, does not have a good
background in mathematics, does not understand
probability theory, does not know how to count,
and does not even know how to play blackjack
well enough to reduce the house's advantage to
its minimum. His system is one of the oldest and
obviously fallacious ones around, simply
doubling his bet every time he loses. When he
wins, he goes back to his basic betting unit,
$10.00, although he tells me he has played using
$100.00 as a basic betting unit. He tells me he
has won thousands of dollars and has never lost
playing his "system." Personally, I don't
believe him. Can you recommend anything that I
could tell him? Can you explain why this is a
bad system, a losing system? George M.
By George, correct you are. Your nephew, Mr.
Flawless J. System, probably isn't the brightest
crayon in the box, especially if he feels his
system is flawless. You are describing a sure
loser, mentioned before in this column, called
the Martingale System, a historic name for
doubling up after every loss. In essence, the
gambler doubles his previous bet after a loss,
hoping to recoup that loss and win back his
initial wager. It is the absolute worst money
management system extant, even if your nephew
thinks his modus operandi is foolproof, because
he is going to win eventually. Well, my friend,
his biggest problem is that he does not have an
inexhaustible bankroll, while Joe Casino Owner
is free to limit the maximum size of Nephew's
wager. By the time Neph is in for the wager
limit--;there's nothing left for him but the
French Foreign Legion. With the Martingale
system, he is betting $10, losing, then putting
down $20 to recoup that loss. Then $40, $80,
$160, $320, $640, $1,280, $2,560. Look at the
smile on Mr. Casino's mug. MISTAKE ONE: He has
now invested $5,110 to get back his paltry $10.
MISTAKE TWO: He might have been playing on a
game with a table limit of $500 or $1,000. A few
loses and the casino automatically protects
itself against his ever welcoming home his
measly sawbuck. What you've got going here,
George, is a nephew using a lethal system. As
for my advice to him, how about say NEVER GO
NEAR A CASINO, OR IF YOU MUST, YOU WON'T BE
USING NO MONEY OF MINE (future inheritance) and
remember. . .the Martingale system is not your
strategy; it's the casino's.
Dear Mark, You stated in your column of Jan 30,
04 that Binion's Horseshoe was the last family
owned casino in the USA. isn't John Ascuaga's
Nugget in Sparks, NV family owned? Also what
about the Eldorado in Reno, NV? Elaine S.
You're absolutely right, Elaine, I stand
corrected. Besides, I knew better as I worked in
Northern Nevada for over 22 years, my boy was
born literally feet from the Eldorado at St.
Mary's Hospital (I was in the Eldorado's buffet
when my wife broke water), and keeping on the
topic of food, I've had my share of meals at
John's Oyster Bar at the Nugget and the La
Strada at the Eldorado. So, Elaine, allow me to
retract that sentence altogether, and for the
catch, I'm sending along a set of my tapes,
Hooked on Winning. Thanks for looking over my
shoulder.
Gambling quote of the week: "I do believe in the
sanctity of marriage, I totally do, but I was in
Vegas and it took over me and things got out of
hand. -- Britney Spears (I'd say almost a
believable excuse.)
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