Little risk, big reward logic is not sane
gambling
February
13, 2009
Dear Mark: I play
craps exclusively and tend to stick with your
recommendations, that being Pass line bets, odds
and a Place bet on either the Six or Eight. I
also like to bet the “snake eyes” or “box cars”
as a fun way to invest a little for a decent
payoff. You’ve called them “sucker” bets,
whereas I see it only as a buck with little
chance of financial ruin. They do hit
occasionally, so I’m asking if there any flaw in
my logic? Dave C.
Your question, Dave, reminded me of a bright
new freshly paved road I once happened onto in
nowhere Nevada one very, very hot summer day. It
was smooth, the concrete was new, bright, swift.
We just tooled along, until coming over a slight
rise we saw that the road ended. No signs, no
warning, no fence, no gate, and no gas – just
sand, cactus, and some sleepy lizards. They
could have named that road Snake-eyes because I
was bitten.
Yes, Dave, I hear it all the time: "It's such a
small investment for the potential of a decent
payoff,” or, “I hit the two (snake eyes)
and twelve (box cars) enough that it pays to bet
a $1.”
What encourages most players to make this bet is
that it can hit, on any given gambling session.
Those “ups” you may be currently having just
shows the volatile nature of gambling. The
rollercoaster “ups” and “downs” of gambling
happen to everyone, but getting an oversized
payout of $30 for your $1 wager will camouflage
the long-term ruin that this “sucker” bet will
eventually bring to your wallet.
What doesn’t change with a snake eyes or a box
cars wager is the built-in house edge. It’s a
whopping 13.88 percent, meaning for every $100
you bet on the two or twelve, the casino pockets
$13.88. Ka-ching! Can you hear me now?
Chicken scratch it’s not, and if you’re
bellied-up to a crap table continually betting
$1 on the two, and participate in 140 rolls of
the dice every hour, your $140 investment should
have an expected loss of $19.43 per hour. Hang
around the game for four hours, plan on $77.72
in losses on that one wager.
Sound gambling? I think not. Neither is driving
in the desert without a full tank of gas.
Dear Mark: I have heard that some states
offer slot machines that are based on skill. How
can that be? Don’t you just yank a handle and
win? Jenny G.
You meant lose, Jenny, didn’t you?
“Skill” slots are slightly different in that you
have two opportunities to spin the reels. After
you see the results of your first spin,
supposedly the “skill” factor comes into
play in the bonus round when you decide to keep
none, one, two or all three symbols on each reel
before you spin them again.
Naturally, you keep the sure things like
cherries, treasure chests, and doubles and trips
of everything, but I’ve tried these “skill”
machines once in North Carolina and I’m still
not quite sure what proficiency you need outside
a flair for guessing and loads of luck.
Gambling Wisdom of the Week: "He
was about to gamble his life on that table, and
the insanity of that risk filled him with a kind
of awe." --Paul Auster, The Music of Chance
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