Some common blackjack
misconceptions that needn't cost you plenty
11 February 2006
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark,
Does it matter much which casino I play in since
the game is pretty much the same from one casino
to the next? Barry D.
For starters, the number of decks of cards being
used and each casino’s in-house rules determine
how much of an advantage the casino has over
their patrons. Furthermore, both playing rules
and number of decks in use often differ from one
casino to the next. Some casinos allow the
players to surrender and to double down after
pair splitting, others don’t. In Casino A,
dealers might stand on a soft 17, in Casino B
they hit. Even within the same casino, or same
pit, you will find one dealer holding a single
or double deck right next to a dealer dealing
out of an 8-deck shoe, both using different
rules based on the decks in play.
If you want to know what really matters when
playing blackjack, it’s shopping for best rules
at hand.
Dear Mark,
If the object of blackjack is to get as close to
21 as possible, why do you stop at 17, 18, or
even 20? Kathy S.
The objective of blackjack is to avoid going
over 21 when the dealer does, or to beat the
dealer by having your hand total higher than the
dealer's hand. Your assumption, Kathy, is amiss,
and it would take a pricy toll on your bankroll
if ever employed. Say your hand totals 18, and
you’re thinking maybe you’ll say “Hit me”, when
ZAPPO! -- a frantic gray cell points out that
only three cards are safe at this point, the
Ace, 2, and 3, while any one of the rest – ten!
Count ‘em – will sink you like a lead dollar.
Dear Mark,
I pretty much stick to basic strategy except for
one hand. I never hit a 12 when the dealer' has
an up card of 2 or 3. Every time I have hit my
12 in the past, out comes a 10 and I bust. Would
you recommend just standing when this scenario
happens? Brett H.
No doubt, Brett, a 12 is a crummy hand, yet you
will win more often over the long haul when you
hit those 12’s. Here’s the rithmetic’. If you
hit your 12 against a 2 or 3 you will win 37% of
the time and lose 63%. If you stand, you will
win 35% of the time and lose 65%. Personally, I
prefer to win 37% of the hands rather than 35%
of them. Wouldn’t you?
Dear Mark,
If you win 50% of the hands at blackjack, where
is the house edge? Larry F.
Yo, Larry, no one wins 50% of his or her hands
in blackjack. Discounting ties, which happen 9%
of the time, you will win, on average, 47% of
your hands and lose 53%.
By the way, Larry, the only advantage the casino
has over you in blackjack is that you must act
on your hand before the dealer takes action on
his. Rule variations have some effect on the
player's expected return, but not on the
casino's sole advantage of having players whack
away and bust before the dealer exposes the hole
card.
Dear Mark,
When you lose five hands in a row in blackjack,
do you recommend betting more money based on the
fact that you are due to win the next hand?
Marty M.
Ah, betting more based on the “due factor.” How
sweet it isn’t!
The cards, Marty, don't give one iota that you
just lost the five hands., didn’t even notice
it. The sixth hand remains an independent event,
and your chances of your winning it are the same
whether you lost, won or tied the previous 5,
10, or 15 hands in a row. Betting on this
misconception that you are “due” to win will put
you in the poorhouse sooner than later.
Gambling Wisdom of the Week: "The whole world
loves a gambler, but not when he loses." Coach
Lombardi after his (and my beloved) Green Bay
Packers won an unprecedented third straight
National Football League title.
|
