Side Bets Usually Have A
Huge House Edge
28 December 2004
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark,
What is your opinion of a side bet offered on
the blackjack table that allows you to bet the
under or over 13? Is it worth playing? John P.
The under/over 13 is a side bet in blackjack
that a player can make on the first two cards
dealt to him, and the bet turns on whether those
two cards total under or over 13. Aces always
count as one. The dealer automatically wins if
the hand totals exactly 13.
The betting, John, works like this. After you
make your standard blackjack wager, a designated
area on the layout is available for you to place
chips on either under 13 or over 13. You must
make a blackjack bet first in order to place
this side wager, and your under/over 13 wager
cannot be for more than your original blackjack
bet, though it may be for less.
Immediately after you receive your first two
cards, the dealer settles all under/over wagers.
For example, if you wagered on the under 13, you
win an even money payoff if your initial two
cards are anything from two (ace, ace) through
12. If your hand totals 14 through 21, you lose.
A similar rule applies for the over 13 wager,
except that you win one-to-one only if your hand
totals 14 or more. The outcome of the under/over
bet is entirely independent of the player's
normal blackjack hand, and it's always settled
before play resumes on the blackjack hand.
So, John, you inquired if I thought it a good
bet for the player. Well, that one simple rule
-- the dealer winning hand totals of 13 -- gives
the casino a sizeable advantage. So, for the
Average Joe, I give it two thumbs down. However,
for the perspicacious and patient player, a tidy
profit can be had by tracking high and low
specific cards as they leave the shoe.
For those reluctant (99% of all blackjack
players) to track specific cards at the table,
the hefty house edge on the under 13 is 10%, and
6.6% on the over 13. Clearly, neither wager
warrants your attention. Nevertheless, John, I
do know someone who has done exceptionally well
making this bet by systematically tracking the
composition of cards remaining in the shoe. When
he observes a large number of low cards being
played, he knows that the remaining cards
contain an abundance of high ones, which favors
the over 13 bet. If many large cards have flown
the shoe, he will bet the under 13.
Though the card tracking system he uses for the
under/over 13 wager is somewhat different from
the card counting system he uses for blackjack,
surprisingly, this very proficient card counter
can run both systems simultaneously in his head,
yielding him a distinct advantage over the
casino for both blackjack and the under/over 13
bet.
Dear Mark,
I am still very new to the game of blackjack,
and I have a question about basic strategy. Is
doubling down considered the ideal option for
playing a soft 18 against a dealer's 3, 4, 5, or
6? Is standing recommended if doubling is not
allowed? Andy K.
A soft hand in blackjack is any hand which, due
to ace magic, the ace can be counted as either a
one or as an 11. As to how you should play your
soft 18 against a 3, 4, 5, or 6; yes, ideally
you should double down, if your casino allows
it; otherwise stand. You should also stand if
you have a soft 18 against a 2, 7, or 8, -- BUT
if the dealer shows a 9, 10 or an Ace, it is
always best to take a hit.
Gambling quote of the week - "We needed money
real bad at home and my daddy told me I had to
stop work or stop gambling." And I said, "Daddy,
if I don't work, how can I get money to gamble?"
And Daddy, he said, "Son, that's what gamblers
got to figure out." So, I quit work. Johnny Moss
(World Champion Poker Player), Fast Company 1975
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