Gut feeling gamblers
26 December 2006
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark: I just encountered it again on a
Vegas talk board. Posters were talking about how
often the number hits of roulette when for some
reason they had a hunch and did not play it or
have played it for an hour and just quit. Just
talking about randomness may not be enough to
really explain what is happening. It really
involves the way our brain tricks selective
memory and us. Then we trust that perception and
start playing hunches. What we probably need is
some science about the brain to remind us how
fragile our perceptions are and perhaps a
language to go with that. And you would be just
the guy to manage to translate that science into
words average people might understand. Dewey H.
You've got the wrong dude, Dewey! When it came
to science, all I was good at was turning Sister
Cyrilla's D into a B and making it look B-coming
enough to bamboozle my Mom. She never knew nor
had a hunch otherwise, and besides, she's gone
now, probably playing a Blazing 7's machine at
St. Peter's Casino and Resort Hotel.
Hunches, Dewey, are nothing more than a
premonition or suspicion that such and such is
going to happen. In your roulette case,
Psychology 101 reminds us that a player wouldn't
have been playing if they hadn't a hunch of an
expected win, and when they do quit, a hunch
tells them there is a winning spin somewhere in
the near future. Being flat broke upon quitting
is chalked up to bad luck, not to some skewed
funny feeling gone awry or the foolishness of
playing a game that has a 5.26% house advantage.
To close this out, let's guess what percentage
of readers of this column will henceforth
substitute logic for faith in hunches. Will you?
Let me know. My own hunch is down around the
0.1-2% range. Why? Because they're gamblers and
their sustaining faith is that of a rope has
only one end.
Dear Mark: Does it make any difference if you
press the spin button or pull the handle on a
slot machine? Dottie N.
Whether you're pressing the spin button or
yanking a handle, either way electronic switches
tell the machine that Dottie is here, and she is
ready for those reels to spin. The random number
generator within that affects the eventual
outcome doesn't give one iota how you initiate
play.
Surgeon Generals Warning: With prolonged play,
both methods have health consequences. One will
give you carpal tunnel syndrome, the other
tennis elbow.
Dear Mark: I know this must be a simple
question, but on the come out roll, if you make
a bet on the Pass line or the Don't pass, can
you pick up either bet after the point has been
established? Gary G.
As for taking your bet down or reducing its size
on the Pass line once a point has been
established, you cannot, as it is considered a
contract wager, and must stay in place, win or
lose.
You can make a pass line bet at any time but you
should never make one or add to it after a
point. Once a point is thrown the odds of
winning drop to 33% to 45% depending on the
point. And besides, 45% of your pass line wins
are made when the 7 or 11 shows on the come-out
roll.
On the Don't side, you can, but you should never
remove a Don't pass bet after a point is made.
Once that point has been made, there are more
ways of a wanted seven appearing than any point
number. There are six ways to roll a seven, and
only five to roll a six or eight, four for the
five and nine, and three ways for the four and
ten. This is why you cannot add to a Don't pass
bet after an established point since it would
favor the player.
Gambling Wisdom of the Week: "When you are
playing and losing, it won't always be the best
player who is winning your money." -- Larry W.
Phillips, "The Tao of Poker"
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