What has odds of one to
2,598,960? Give up? Read On
22 December 2006
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark: Is there a difference in payback
between a standard $1 slot machine and a $1
Megabucks machine? Sally O.
A wide-area progressive, such as a Megabucks
machine, typically coughs up 87% to the player,
which, compared to a standard one-dollar slot
that roughly pays back 94%, representing a seven
percent loss in long-term return. Unfortunately,
Sally, that percentage difference is tied up in
a jackpot that you probably will never hit.
Dear Mark: What are your thoughts on alternating
between two and three coins on a slot to save
money? Cindy B.
Most slot machines, Cindy, offer an incentive to
play the maximum coin amount. For example,
two-coin inserted may pay 2,000, but three coins
pays out 5,000, a bonus of 1,000 additional
coins. If this were the case with the machine
you had in mind, then I would always recommend
playing max coins.
But if the machine is a straight multiplier, say
for instance the top jackpot line pays 1,000
with one coin inserted; the second pays 2,000,
and the third 3,000, then, yes, occasionally
betting less wouldn't make a difference.
Dear Mark: I really loved you column last week
on card counting. I do have a question regarding
counting multiple decks. Is it possible? Also,
can you count cards when playing blackjack
online? Al A.
Thanks, Al, for the nice compliment. Anyhow, as
to your question, yes, if you have the smarts to
count down one deck, you can count down two, six
or even eight decks. You just happen to be
counting longer between shuffles.
As for counting cards online, smarts won't
matter since most online casinos shuffle-up
after every hand.
Dear Mark: This actually happened at our
friendly Friday night poker game. A player early
in the evening got four aces and the king of
spades to win the hand. Later on, he got the
exact same hand? What are the chances of that
occurring? Dale L.
Above average if he happened to be the dealer,
who happens to be a master card magician, or has
unbelievable skills at dealing seconds and
bottoms. You did though state "friendly" in part
of your question, so, I'll tell you that there
are 2,598,960 possible hand combinations with a
52-card deck. So, Dale, the odds of getting any
one specific hand would be one in 2,598,960.
Dear Mark: What is the correct strategy for late
surrender? Don N.
Smart blackjack players always play in a casino
that offers the best playing conditions. Early
and late surrender are two such rules that do
help the player.
Early surrender permits a player to relinquish
half of the wager even if the dealer has a
blackjack. With late surrender, a player loses
the bet if the dealer possesses a blackjack.
Basic strategy for late surrender on a
multi-deck game is as follows:
Surrender hard 16 (but not 8-8) vs. 9, 10, ace.
Surrender hard 15 vs. 10, although some experts
also advise those who are risk- averse to
surrender hard 15 vs. ace.
One more thing, Don. Don't think of surrender as
giving up half your wager, but as just getting
back half your probable loss.
Gambling Wisdom of the Week: "Lady luck rules in
the shot run." Ray Franke, Magical Blackjack
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