Sure thing isn't so sure
21 December 2006
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark: I received an offer in the mail that
if I use this person's strategy at video poker,
and play on machines that hypothetically return
close to 100%, that I will be a winner every
time, GUARANTEED! What is the deal here? Ken G.
GUARANTEED? Ah, another swindler scamming their
system.
Before you get sucked in, here's the real deal.
True, by always playing perfect basic strategy
you can achieve any video poker machine's
maximum payback. If you have knowledgeably
selected a machine that offers a potential
return very close to, or even exceeding, 100%,
then, technically, you could have an edge over
the house, and probably a winner over the long
haul, but guaranteed? Not so.
Even the casino, Ken, isn't guaranteed winning
against every gambler's play, though they do
just happen to have an edge on nearly all the
games, and on the wagers on those games. In a
house holding such a guarantee, and never paying
off, there'd be very few and only rather sleepy
gamblers, wouldn't there?
Yes, Ken, I've written plenty in the past to the
effect that video poker is one of the only games
where the smart player can get an advantage over
the house, but there is a difference between
playing with an advantage, and always being a
winner. The one doesn't necessarily GUARANTEE
the other.
Dear Mark: I'm making my first trip to Las
Vegas. Blackjack is the game I normally play.
How would I go about getting comps? All tips
would be appreciated. Rick D.
You start by asking, Rick, because if you don't,
how in the heck can they, the pit boss, say yes.
Second, you will need to be rated. They -- this
time "they" is a computer, will assess your
rating and eligibility for comps. To get your
goodies, you will be expected to bet a decent
chunk of change for a calculated stretch of
time. Then they, casino management, will base
your room, food and beverage goodies on what you
are probably going to lose. Huh? On what I
"lose", and not what I show up with, you ask.
Yep.
They, the computer again, now considers your
average bet, how many hours you were possibly
going to play, speed of the game, and the casino
advantage. This, in theory, computes essentially
your expected loss to the casino over a specific
period of time, and suggests to the management
how much to give back to you in the form of
comps.
Quick example: Suppose Joe Six Pack is betting
$20 a hand for three hours, averaging 100 hands
per hour, coupled with the usual house advantage
of five percent the casino holds over the
average blackjack player. The casino's evil
wizard can predict in advance that Joey will
lose $300. ($20 X 3 hrs. X 100 hands X .05 =
$300).
So what will losing $300 get him? Well, if he
were to ask up-front about some freebies, and
they rated him, he should get at least a feeding
frenzy at their buffet.
Nuts to that you say. "I ain't gonna lose no 300
buckaroos just for a trip to the chow line."
Well, you could use some comp chicanery by
initially betting more when the pit boss starts
watching and rating your then-play, and less
when he isn't. What you're doing would be making
the pit boss think you're a high roller. The
computer knows only what is keyed in, and it
rations out gratuities accordingly.
Speaking of buffets, how about a Buffet Wisdom
of the Week: "If you eat well you can eat more."
Rachael Ray
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