Those odd odds
18 December 2002
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark,
I believe in your theory that each spin of the
roulette ball is an independent event. So
betting streaks is futile. But leaving common
sense behind for just a moment, is there any
minute reason to bet a streak? And if so, with
it, or buck the odds? Harry C.
You know me well, Harry. You-and, I hope, most
readers-recognize that no amount of past history
(looking backwards from a streak) on a random,
non-biased wheel predicts the outcome of the
next spin. Each spin is, as you say, an
independent event, and the law of averages says
nothing about a single spin. (Another name for
the law of averages is "the law of very large
numbers"; and there's a reason for that.) A
streak is nothing more than a welcome, momentary
flutter in an endless time-line which will soon
be canceled by one or more unwelcome flutters.
Only those who surf on a basketball should risk
their money on streaks.
But okay, Harry, for interesting discussion's
sake, and with your pistol at my temple, I will
confess that I would bet with a streak, not
against one.
Why? Any gambler who's racked up some playing
time knows that the improbable can and will
happen on any game, on any given night. I have
personally seen red appear more than 20 times in
a row, and I once dealt to a lady who won 32
straight hands at blackjack (at only a deuce per
hand; too bad), and on craps have witnessed
players making their "point" for what seemed
like eternity.
In such as these cases, if you bet the streak
and are wrong, you lose only that bet. But if
you bet consistently against a streak, you're
heading for tapped out and home for the
holidays. That is why, in my right mind, I
wouldn't buck the odds.
Dear Mark,
I have never hit a royal flush. Figuring that at
the age of 78 I may never get a royal, do you
know of any systems that can give me an edge
without ever hitting one? Charlie B.
Sorry, Charlie, there is no video poker system
that gives you an edge against the house without
hitting a royal. Keen play will cut your losses
between royal flushes, but even that will not
give your play an even chance against the
casino. Without that elusive royal flush,
Charlie, your expectation is to lose, and no
system can change that.
Dear Mark,
Will the Lottery make prize payments to a living
trust of a winner who receives annual
installment payments? Maggie F.
Each state, Maggie, has different regulations,
but in California, where you live, the answer is
yes, provided you survive the required
bureaucratic tangles: file the appropriate form
with the Lottery Investments Office. That form,
Declaration and Assignment of Lottery Prize to
Revocable Living Trust, can be requested through
the Lottery, to make payments to a living trust,
as long as the prize winner is the person
funding the trust and is a beneficiary of the
trust.
Hopefully, Maggie, you will live another score
of years and spend a good chunk of your winnings
while still kicking. Then, after your demise,
the remaining annual payments will be made to
the surviving trustee(s) or beneficiary (ies).
Gambling quote of the week: "The sad truth is
that many players view the casino as an adult
theme park, with their gambling stake being the
price they pay to be taken for a ride." Marvin Karlins Ph.D.
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