Kids show Pops the
hazards of gambling
1 December 2003
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark, How do they do it? My kids have
taught me a coin-flipping game called Mix or
Match and are steering me toward bankruptcy. You
bet on one of three possible outcomes: Two
Heads, Two Tails, Or the Mix--one Head, one
Tail. You bet whatever amount you want (up to
ten cents) on one of the outcomes, and your
opponent bets on another; winner takes all money
wagered. You can also bet on Any Match--whether
Heads or Tails--and in that case, the wager for
the Mix is just half the Any Match bet, since
there are two Matches possible against one Mix.
They're driving me nuts as well as broke, with
no cheating I can detect. How? Wing T. B.
Nice name. I once knew another guy named Wing
who I used to ski the steep and bumps with at
Lake Tahoe. But like the casino, where danger
lurks around every corner, a freak accident on a
bunny run sidelined Wing for years. He went on
to card counting somewhere in the Caribbean, I
to another 12 years of 100-day ski seasons. I
sure miss those days of skiing every day,
pitching cardboard every night. It's the Any
Match bet, Wing, that is your downfall, or
broken leg if you will. You see two ways of
winning with that wager and only one way with
the Mix bet, and, thinking you'll show the kids
a thing or two, you frequently bet on Any Match,
putting up twice the silver that the kids risk.
Right? While there may seem to be only one
chance for the Mix bettor to win, there are
really two chances--so the Any Match bettor is
putting up twice the cash that the little con
artist is risking when he (she?, they?) goes for
Mix. And since the odds of a Mix are really the
same as the odds for Any Match, and the Any
Match bettor is paying off double half the time,
it's a long slippery slope for the latter toward
insolvency. Here are the possible outcomes of a
flip:
1) Wing - Head / Kids - Head Matching Heads
2) Wing - Tail / Kids - Tail Matching Tails
3) Wing - Head / Kids - Tail Mix: Head-Tail
4) Wing - Tail / Kids - Head Mix: Tail-Head
Several street cons and bar bets turn on this
same illusion-- the overlooked possible outcome.
Now that you know the ruse, you can probably
score some few refreshments at your favorite
watering hole. Better yet, bet em' they can't
spell Albuerque. Most can't. By the way, where
do your kids go to school?
Dear Mark, Recently in the column, you mentioned
that when playing video poker you should always
break the low pairs (2s - 10s) against any
four-card flush, straight flush, and three cards
to a royal. Are you saying that in the above
case you should hold the high pairs--or is that
a "duh...of course"? Don P.
"Duh" questions for this column? Never, Don.
Chalk this one up as an omission on my part.
Keep the high pair against a 4-card flush, but
discard it against a 4-card inside straight
flush or an open-ended straight flush. As for
what to do when you have both a high pair and
3-card royal, many experts advise you to hold
the high pair. I lean towards keeping the 3-card
royal. Either way, the difference is miniscule.
Gambling quote of the week: This is where I
should have quit, but some kind of strange
sensation built up in me, a kind of challenge to
fate, a kind of desire to give it a flick on the
nose, or stick my tongue at it." Fyodor
Dostoevsky, The Gambler (1867)
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