Making money on a losing situation, sort of
August 14,
2009
Dear Mark: I play
a decent game of blackjack, but one hand gets
the best of me, possibly because I wing it more
than I should rather than stick to playing basic
strategy. It seems every time I am dealt a hard
12, I get a bust card, so on more occasions than
not, I stand. I typically play every other week,
two five-hour sessions per, on $10 games. I
would like to know how much I’m getting hurt by
not hitting 12’s. Michael W.
“Winging it” on this particular hand, Michael,
isn’t the worst mistake you can make at
blackjack, but there is a correct way to play
it.
A hard 10 (face-two) with the dealer presenting
a two as an upcard is virtually a toss up
between standing and hitting, yet the
percentages favor hitting, albeit slightly.
Let’s do the math.
For every 1,000,000 hands where the dealer is
showing a two, you’ll get your troubling hard
twelve 6,230 times. Stand on it, Michael, and
you’ll win 35% of the time; hit it, 37%. Yes, a
losing proposition of 63% versus 65%, so let’s
just see how much that 2% gain by hitting a hard
12 is worth monetarily to you.
As you stated, based on your playing 20 hours of
blackjack a month at $10 per bet, you'll save
yourself on this one hand around $60 a year just
by hitting versus standing on a hard 12.
Sure, Michael, it’s a lousy hand, but hitting a
hard 12 is the better play, and it will save you
some dough in this losing situation.
Dear Mark: Where I play, the casino
offers a single zero roulette wheel. With the 00
eliminated, when you see a streak of five or six
in a row with one color (black), wouldn’t it be
smart to bet the other way being that the other
color (red) is due, and the 00 isn’t there to
hurt you? Nate R.
Before I move to your question, Nate, for all
those who dabble in roulette, it’s important to
note that with this game, the casino’s steep
edge of 5.26% comes from the presence of the 0
and 00 on the layout. The casino pays all wagers
according to how the odds would be if there were
just 36 numbers on the wheel, even though, with
the addition of the 0 and 00, there are in fact
38 numbers. The true odds of hitting your
selected number are 1/38, yet winners are paid
only 35-1. And even on a single-zero game, the
house still pays 35-1, with the true odds
improving to 1/37, which cuts the house edge
about in half to 2.6%.
Now to your question, Nate.
That little white ball going round and round
doesn’t give a hoot whether black or red has
appeared five, six or even 10 times in a row
before it drops in the pocket. In fact, the
chance of your winning the next spin is
independent of your wins or losses on the last
10 spins, 100 spins, or a thousand spins.
Yes, Nate, sooner or later the number of times
you win will close in on the house edge of 2.6%
(single zero game), but sooner or later could be
a long time. Over the short run, like the few
hours you might be playing, that tiny sliver of
time can’t improve the likelihood of a win based
upon what has happened in the past.
Gambling Wisdom of the Week: “I
once saw a couple who stopped to hug and kiss
after every 4-of-a-kind while playing video
poker.” --Jean Scott, Frugal Video Poker
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