The secret to video poker
25 August 2000
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark,
If dealt A, K, Q, J, of hearts and a 10 of
diamonds on a video poker machine, should I try
for the royal flush or stick with the straight?
This happened to me recently and I kept the
straight, kicking myself ever since. How bad a
move was it? Patricia M.
Stop kicking yourself, Patricia, but you did
mess up.
When playing video poker, all experts will
discard certain cards to optimize the "expected
value" (win potential) of their hands. Herein
lies the secret to winning at video poker-or
another way of saying it, playing perfect basic
strategy.
So what do I mean by "expected value?" Expected
value is the average value of all the wins
attainable (after the discards are replaced),
assuming that the optimum cards are retained and
each unique possible draw occurs. In your case,
the Expected Value of a 4-Card Royal was 19 and
straight is just a 4.
By now, Patricia, I suspect you think this
expected value stuff isn't worth learning since
I've mentioned previously that there are
2,459,076 possible hands you can be dealt in
video poker. Not necessarily. In reality, there
are only 35 workable combination of hands, from
the naturally dealt royal flush to that crummy
hand where you would discard all five cards.
learn them and you'll lower the house edge to
under one half of one percent.
My only solution at this time, Patricia, is to
tell you that every hand you are dealt has some
value and potential of winning money, with the
expected value predetermined accurately by past
computer studies. Hopefully by summers end I'll
be bringing those computer studies to a four
color, laminated chart form, which will identify
each of those 35 combinations. I'll make sure
you, and all the readers of this column, know
when it's available.
Dear Mark,
I want to make some decent sized wagers (10-20K)
on a few games this upcoming football season.
Ideally, I would like to make them in Vegas, but
that is not really practical for me. I know
there are various internet off-shore books who
will take bets via bank wire and telephone. I am
willing to risk the legal implications of this,
18 USC 1084 notwithstanding, but I am worried
about wiring $20,000 out of the country to some
guy I've never met except for 3 minutes on the
telephone.
Do you know which of these telebet books are
reputable? Or not reputable? And how much do
they generally take in wagers? Is $20,000 a
great deal to them?
Any information that you care to share would be
greatly appreciated. Thanks. Arnold J.
Arnold, didn't you answer your own question when
you stated "I am worried about wiring $20,000
out of the country to some guy I've never met
except for 3 minutes on the telephone?" I think
you summed up your potential risk quite well.
Besides, as a syndicated columnist, it wouldn't
be appropriate for me to dole out illegal advice
on how to best beat the Interstate Wire Act.
Finally, I've mentioned this once before in a
previous column, but I can't advise anyone to
wire money thousands of miles away to an
unregulated, uncontrolled, and probably illegal
enterprise, give them a credit card and social
security number, and hope everything is square.
Sorry, Arnold, no vote of confidence here.
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