Dealers do bust, really,
with a little help from you
28 April 2003
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark,
When the dealer is showing a bust card (2, 3, 4,
5, 6), how often does she
really bust? Dan A.
Never, as in "When I'm playing, they never
bust." overstates it, Dan, though
we've all had that feeling. But they do bust, as
often as 43% of the time
when a six is showing.
Success at blackjack, Dan, is based on how you
play your hand against the
dealer's upcard. The upcard provides you with
enough information to reliably
predict the most likely outcome of play against
any dealer's hand, based on
the makeup of a standard deck of playing cards.
A multitude of computer studies have been done
on the game of blackjack,
analyzing the correct strategy on playing your
hand, against any given
dealer's upcard.
Because the dealer plays by a set of strict
house rules on when to stand or
when to take a card, she must draw a card until
she has a total of 17 or
more.
Based on computers crunching their diet of 1s
and 0s, the dealer will bust
more often when her upcard is a 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6,
and she will successfully
complete more hands when her up card is a 7, 8,
9, or a 10-value card (10,
J, Q, K) or an ace.
The following table, Dan, shows the dealer's
likelihood of busting with any
particular upcard.
Percent of the time she'll bust:
2- 35%
3- 38%
4- 40%
5- 42%
6- 43%
7- 26%
8- 24%
9- 23%
10-value card 21%
Ace- 11%
Note, Dan, that the dealer will bust most often
when she has a 5 or a 6 as
her upcard, and she will bust the least
frequently, approximately 11% of the
time, when her upcard is an ace.
Generally speaking, basic strategy dictates it
is to your advantage to stand
down when the dealer's upcard is a 2 through 6,
then hope, wish and pray, as
we all do, that your femme fatale of fate draws
a 10-value card that makes
her bust. (Yes, I know there's a pun in there
somewhere, but I'm avoiding
it.) It also means that when the dealer's upcard
is 7 through ace, she will
complete more of her hands. In that situation,
you will need to draw cards
up to a total of 17 or more.
Dear Mark,
In blackjack, is it true that the biggest jump
in the casino edge is when
you move from one to two decks, and with each
additional deck, the house
edge is less dramatic? Sam B.
You are correct, Sam. It is always to your
advantage to play against as few
decks as possible. With respect to deck sizes,
the casino edge goes up
substantially as you go from 1 deck to 2, tapers
off when you go from 2 to 6
decks, and is negligible when you go from a 6 to
8-deck shoe.
Casino edge
Two decks -0.35%
Four decks -0.48%
Six decks -0.48%
Eight decks -0.56%
You can offset this casino advantage by finding
player-friendly rules where
surrender is allowed, as is doubling down after
splitting pairs, and
re-splitting aces.
Improvement in your winning chance
Double after split +0.14%
Early surrender +0.70%
Late surrender +0.06%
Resplit Aces +0.14%
Double anytime +0.24%
Or how about this gem I haven't seen in a blue
moon: A Natural paying 2 to
1. Your expected win rate goes up +2.3% with
this beauty.
Bottom line: Smart players always know enough to
take advantage of favorable
playing conditions and to sniff out and shun the
unfavorable ones. Which
type of player are you? Unfair question, but
what the heck?
Gambling thought of the week: "The longer you
expose yourself to the casino
environment, the more susceptible you become to
their ploys." - Jerry L.
Patterson, Casino Gambling
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