Those Gimmick Wagers Ride the Range Again
April 24, 2009
Dear Mark: I was
playing blackjack, and this game had the Pair
Plus bet. I usually don't bet these side bets,
but pairs were coming up like crazy so I tried
it a couple of times. Could you give me the
house edge on this bet? James H.
The bet you mentioned isn’t called Pair Plus, as
the wager of that name you will find on a Three
Card Poker table. I believe what you are
describing is a wager called "Pair Square," a
blackjack side bet that wins if the player's
first two cards are of the same rank.
With Pair Square, you’ll find a small square
next to your regular betting circle, about the
size of a silver dollar. Just place your side
bet in the square before your hand is dealt, and
if it's a pair, you win the side bet. Payoff
odds differ between casinos, but at typical
scale, the bet usually pays 9-to-1 odds on an
unsuited pair and 20-to-1 if the pair is suited.
At those odds with a six-deck shoe, the house
has an 8.5 percent edge against your play.
Depending upon the number of decks and various
different payoff odds, the corresponding house
edge can be anywhere between 2.89% and 15.42%.
Now compare that, James, to the house edge on
regular blackjack, which varies from as little
as a half of one percent to three percent,
depending upon your quality of play.
Many players think these attention-grabbing
options with these rare but lofty payoffs make
the game more enjoyable. Some actually believe
they are good bets -- but they're far from it.
Keep in mind, James, that every side-bet on the
layout is designed for one purpose, and one
purpose only: to increase the house profits on
blackjack. For that reason, I would advise you
and the rest of humanity to avoid all gimmick
wagers in general.
Dear Mark: Occasionally you will see an
advertisement that select slots return a 99%
payback. This can’t be correct, can it? Does
that mean I put in $100 and get back $99? Julie
C.
The advertisement you’re recalling is
essentially correct, but I would add one
qualifying phrase: 99% payback means that a
machine will pay back, ON AVERAGE, $99 of every
$100 played through it. That means that 99%, on
average, of all money that is inserted into the
machine is being paid back to players. In other
words, the casino makes a 1% profit.
So will you, Julie, always get 99 cents back for
every dollar played? Nope! What’s going to
happen, Julie, is that your individual gambling
session, say of a $100, will have widely
varying results based on the volatility of that
particular machine.
You need to look at slot paybacks this way: The
more a machine gets played, the closer its
actual payback gets to its theoretical payback.
Now, if the machine which is advertised to
return 99% were to get, say, a million plays,
then its actual payback will get within a few
percentage points of its theoretical 99%
payback. Your $100 bankroll amounts to a paltry
few dozen spins on a dollar slot, whereas the
casino’s bankroll partakes in every bet made on
that same machine, 24/7, 365 days of the year.
Unfortunately, Julie, you’ll never yank that
handle a million times, so the actual payback to
you on that machine can be many percentage
points away from the theoretical payback. And
yes, that doesn’t mean it can’t miss the
theoretical mark on the positive side, either,
giving you the thrill you’re waiting for. So,
what can I say? Good Luck!
Gambling Wisdom of the Week:
“For many people, the craving to gamble at
sports is almost as inherent as the instinct of
self-preservation.” --Barney Vinson, Las Vegas
Behind the Tables
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