A heap of small advantages has its value
April 23,
2010
Dear Mark: I
don’t quite get the theory that if you are a
card counter, why you would bet more on a
positive count. Doesn’t the dealer have the
same chances of getting a good hand as you
do? Ric K. True,
Ric, the likelihood of both you and the
dealer getting high cards increases when the
count is positive, but your advantage is
greater because the rules of the game are
not the same for dealer as they are for you.
The last I heard, you get
paid 1.5 to one on a blackjack, yet the
casino only wins even money. (Side note:
Readers of this column never play blackjack
where the offering is 6 for 5 for
blackjacks.) You also have the increased
probability at winning twice your initial
wager on both double down’s and splits when
the count is high. Or, how
about a stiff hand like the dreaded 16. When
the count is positive and you see a 16, you
can stand with a pat hand, but the dealer’s
got to whack it. Also, you can take
insurance, which becomes a profitable play
in high counts. It’s these
extra monetary gains, Ric, that shift the
player's bankroll from red to black, and
that’s why when you have a decent positive
count, you chunk a little more out there.
Dear Mark: I have been
counseled that a "surrender" bet is a bet
that favors the house in blackjack. I
have played blackjack for a long time, and
understand the basic strategy. Seems to me
that in selected situations, a surrender
move is an advantage. What is your opinion
about surrendering? If surrendering is ok,
could you please give an example under what
circumstances? Dirk D.
You were wrongly counseled, Dirk. Surrender,
both early and late, is a rules option
allowed in certain casinos where a player
may give up half the wager after seeing the
dealer’s up-card. Between the two, early
surrender is far more advantageous for
blackjack players than is late surrender.
With early surrender, the casino
allows the player to surrender his hand and
relinquish half the bet before the dealer
checks the hole card. This reduces the
casino's edge by a whopping 0.6%, making it
one of the most favorable blackjack playing
rules allowed, and a definite loser for the
casino when used correctly by a proficient
player. Unfortunately, few casinos make it
available. The far more
frequently offered late surrender allows a
player to abandon a hand after the dealer
has checked the hole card for a blackjack.
If the dealer has a blackjack, lose you
must. This rule reduces the casino's
advantage by only 0.08%, but nonetheless,
it’s still one of the more sophisticated
moves in blackjack and an advantage to the
player. So when is the
best time to wave the white flag?
Surrendering is best utilized when the
dealer is showing a 10 or an ace and you
have a hard 16. You will lose on average 41%
of all the 16s dealt to you. Your worst loss
will occur when the dealer shows a ten. For
every 100,000 hands dealt, you'll get a 16
against dealer's ten 1824 times and lose
1037 of them. Your best playing strategy
here is to surrender the hand and cut your
losses. Anytime you are
allowed to give up half your wager for the
privilege of not playing out a crappy hand,
consider it less an admission of defeat,
than really smart gambling.
Gambling wisdom of the Week: "Wanting
to win is actually a pretty superficial
goal. It's like wanting to be rich...it's
not enough." --Larry W. Phillips, The Tao of
Poker
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