You still lose, just less
often
9 April 1999
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark,
Every basic strategy card, blackjack book, and
yes, you, recommend splitting eights against a
dealer 10. Well, fear gets the better of me, and
I depart from correct play and just hit instead
of splitting the pair. So what should I do about
a hand that always seems to haunt me? Hit, split
or play the hunch? Scott N.
You're right, Scott, eights against a 10 is a
phantasmal hand that stalks most players like
Marley's ghost.
As my readers know, blackjack is a game where
the proper hit, stand, splitting and doubling
decisions are necessary in order to cut the
house edge down to a minimum. These proper
decisions are called basic strategy and have
been arrived at by computer simulations of
millions of hands.
But fallacious logic tells you that splitting
this hand creates two losers. Seems every time
you split those eights you get, at best, two
10s. Then the dealer always has a nine or 10 in
the hole, and bang, the jingling you hear is not
Marley's forged chains but all your money
falling into the dealer's tray.
So what happens to the average player? He starts
deviating from basic strategy because FEAR sets
in. The FEAR is actually False Evidence
Appearing Real. FEAR camouflages the logic of
computer studies. But according to basic
strategy, the proper move is to split 8s if the
game you're playing doesn't allow surrender.
Why? Because you will lose more money in the
long run if you hit instead of splitting.
Mathematically, when you just hit the hand, you
will lose $51 for every $100 wagered. However,
if you split, you will lose $44 for every $100
bet. A seven dollar difference for every hundred
dollars wagered.
Granted, Scott, it's a character builder to come
out of pocket with additional money, but the key
behind basic strategy is: Win more money not
necessarily more hands.
Dear Mark,
I've been around computers since 1978 and some
folks even call me a computer genius. My new
project is to develop a hand-held computer I can
conceal in my pocket and try counting cards with
much more accuracy. What are the
risks/consequences if caught with a hand-held
computing device in my possession in a casino?
Anonymous
Dear Anonymous, allow me to let Beavis and
Butthead spell it out for you: "Just because you
own a computer doesn't mean you still can't be
stupid."
Dear Mark,
I have been following your advice and making
casino bets that have less than a two percent
house advantage. I now consider myself a
reformed player. My blockhead brother on the
other hand makes bets with no rhyme or reason.
Since we both play craps, show me why my pass
line bet versus his favorite bet, hardway sixes
and eights, will always do better? Susan M.
Susan, by using a simple mathematical formula, I
will prove that by playing smart, your play will
generally outperform your brother's.
Let's first analyze your action, Susan. A pass
line bet, with no odds, has a house advantage of
1.4%. With a $5 wager and 50 playing decisions
per hour, your theoretical loss (all bets lose
over time) is $5 X 50 X 0.014, or $3.50 per
hour. Relatively cheap entertainment. In
comparison, your brother's bet, the hard six or
eight, has a house advantage of 9.1%. The damage
to his bankroll would be $5 X 50 X 0.091, or
$22.75 in the same amount of time. Multiply that
by 15 hours of play and you've got a sniveling,
unhappy camper with a long car ride home.
Sibling rivalry aside, glad to see you're
reforming your play. Now let's convert the
blockhead.
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