A push is NOT a win
28 April 2000
By Mark Pilarski
Dear Mark,
When playing Video Poker, I consistently win by
getting high pairs but struggle for the higher
hands. Can I successfully beat the house on a
high pair alone? Rhonda T.
Rhonda, we need to separate the wheat from the
chaff. One of the reasons video poker is so
popular is that it returns your investment for a
pair of jacks to aces. But, Rhonda, never
consider a push a win. The psychological effect
of returned coins from a push has at best,
dubious value. All it does is make you feel like
a winner, when in reality you're not. Treat
even-money payoffs not as a win against the
casino but just getting YOUR hard-earned money
back.
Personally, I've always felt that this erroneous
impression of winning is one of the most
powerful false hope methods the casino has
against you, not only with your high pair
scenario but also when it's a push on a
blackjack table or a one-cherry payoff on a pull
handle slot machine.
So do you want to win more consistently, Rhonda?
Find 9/6 video poker pay tables or 8/5 machines
with progressives nearing $2,200, then play
perfect basic strategy. A high pair now and then
will make you consistent all right, a consistent
loser.
Dear Mark,
In Las Vegas, I saw a casino advertise that on
their selected video poker machines your return
can be more than 100%. Is this possible? Isn't
the casino going to lose money? Mary S.
Yes, Mary, the casinos would lose money if every
player had unlimited access to "selected
machines," plus understood and used perfect
basic strategy. But because fewer than one
percent effectively play perfect basic strategy,
the casino won't lose money by making such an
offer. You also answered part of your question
by stating "on selected machines." Sometimes
those "selected machines" can be as few as two
on the whole casino floor. No chance of two
expert players grinding away at the house and
affecting the casino quarterly report. Plus, the
casino will generally surround those "selected
machines" with others that have pay tables
offering significantly lower payoffs,
guaranteeing even more winnings from the
uneducated masses.
Like casino mogul Steve Wynn says, "If you wanna
make money in a casino, own one."
Dear Mark,
I have found a couple of web sites that survey
blackjack conditions at various casinos and
sometimes they quote a "Penetration Percentage."
Exactly what is that? Is there anything a player
can do to influence it? Dennis L.
How many cards a dealer pitches from his deck
before he shuffles is called penetration. If he
deals all the cards out, that's 100 percent
penetration. For the average Joe playing on the
game, penetration has little significance.
However, for the card counter, the depth of
penetration is a key variable on whether to play
on that game. The deeper a counter can go into a
deck, the better.
You also asked, Dennis, if you can influence it?
Sort of. Every casino has a set policy on how
deep they will allow their dealers to go before
they want them to shuffle-up. But casinos do
have lazy dealers who don't like to shuffle.
Shuffling forces them to be certified friendly
and converse with the customer. Believe me, no
amount of Prozac is going to get a stiff dealer
yapping. One dealer told me that for 10 years,
working in four different casinos, he always
dealt to the bottom of the deck to avoid
conversation. Not once did a pit boss or the
"eye in the sky" ask him to change his rogue
conduct.
By the way, that dealer is now running a casino
in the Midwest.
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